The San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs are officially headed to Super Bowl LVIII, which kicks off Sunday, Feb. 11, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
With two weeks till the bulky month, we’re taking an early take a look at what you’ll be expecting within the matchup. Stephen Holder units it up with what to grasp, and our NFL Public journalists — Nick Wagoner and Adam Teicher — glance nearer at each and every crew. Seth Walder crunches the numbers to provide you with some key stats to grasp, Matt Bowen dives into the sport plan with a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X issue. Aaron Schatz solutions bulky questions climate the overall recreation of the season, and Jason Reid explores the quarterback matchup. Let’s dive in.
Be aware: Recreation traces are by way of ESPN BET. Predictions are from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Leap to:
49ers | Chiefs | Key stats
Matchup keys | Big questions
Quarterbacks | Betting
When: Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS
The place: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas | Tickets
Opening wrinkle: Pick out ’em (O/U 47.5)
Few groups have turn into extra synonymous with the Tremendous Bowl than the Chiefs and 49ers. Kansas Town is headed to its 6th Tremendous Bowl, together with a noteceable fourth within the while 5 seasons. If that isn’t a dynasty, what’s? For the 49ers, they’re making an 8th look within the Tremendous Bowl, however have a anticipation to win their first since 1994.
This matchup of Tremendous Bowl LIV nearest the 2019 season, gained via the Chiefs, supplies a anticipation at immortality for all concerned. However, extra in particular, it offers the Chiefs the chance to proceed a run that has been hardly ever noticeable within the NFL. Successful back-to-back Tremendous Bowls has confirmed extremely tricky, however the Chiefs can accomplish the feat for the primary occasion for the reason that 2003-04 Patriots did it just about 20 years in the past. In the meantime, quarterback Patrick Mahomes turns into the youngest QB to start out his fourth Tremendous Bowl and trainer Andy Reid prepares for his 5th Tremendous Bowl, trailing simplest Invoice Belichick (9) and Don Shula (6) in appearances.
For the Niners, it’s a anticipation to in the end fracture via nearest advancing to the NFL Championship Recreation seven instances since 2011 and not using a unmarried Tremendous Bowl name. As superb because the franchise has been, the truth is it’s been 29 seasons for the reason that 49ers latter gained a championship, with Steve Younger successful MVP in Tremendous Bowl XXIX. Brock Purdy isn’t any Steve Younger, however successful his first Tremendous Bowl can be a bulky first step for the younger 49ers quarterback. — Holder
Common season: 12-5 | NFC seed: Deny. 1
Explanation why for hope: Skilled big name energy. Deny crew in soccer has a larger galaxy of stars than the Niners. They’d a league-high 9 gamers decided on to the Professional Bowl, 12 extra selected as alternates and 7 gamers who earned first or second-team All Professional honors. What’s extra, the Niners have enough quantity of gamers and coaches who’ve participated in deep playoff runs, together with 8 gamers who performed significant snaps in Tremendous Bowl LIV. After they’re rolling, the Niners regarded each bit the a part of a juggernaut, successful their 12 regular-season video games via a mean of nineteen issues, moment best possible within the league.
Explanation why for fear: Contemporary historical past. The 49ers don’t precisely have fond reminiscences of enjoying the Chiefs on a bulky level. The Niners misplaced to the Chiefs of their latter Tremendous Bowl look 4 years in the past. And age the Niners haven’t performed the Chiefs since Oct. 23, 2022, they misplaced via 3 touchdowns that month and feature no longer defeated Kansas Town in a recreation with Mahomes at quarterback. In principle, none of that are meant to stop the Niners from turning the tables however there’s one thing to be mentioned for the concept that the Chiefs are merely a malicious matchup for them. — Wagoner
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Brock Purdy’s bulky Third-down scramble units up overdue 49ers TD
The 49ers whip a double-digit top as Brock Purdy escapes force to scramble for a primary ill sooner than Elijah Mitchell punches in a landing.
Common season: 11-6 | AFC seed: Deny. 3
Explanation why for hope: They have got Mahomes and he performs at his best possible within the postseason. In his latter six postseason video games, Mahomes has finished 70% of his passes with a yards-per-attempt reasonable of seven.0 and 11 touchdowns with out throwing an interception. And the residue of the offense has proven indicators of age just lately. They’re getting extra bulky performs and had a season-high 8 performs of greater than 20 yards within the divisional spherical win over the Expenses.
Explanation why for fear: Sloppy offensive play games. The Chiefs throughout the steady season led the league in dropped passes, had been moment in offensive consequences and connect for 7th in submits. They have got gained within the playoffs regardless of their sloppiness. Throughout the crimson zone isolated within the wild-card win over the Dolphins, they dropped a move, botched a shotgun snap and had a penalty that burnt up a TD on 3 other drives, eminent them to kick area objectives. Mecole Hardman Jr.’s goal-line fumble within the divisional spherical allowed the Expenses to stick similar. How for much longer can the Chiefs proceed to overcome just right groups via enjoying this manner? — Teicher
Stats to grasp
San Francisco’s enough of playmakers is a abundance explanation why the crew isn’t just within the Tremendous Bowl, however has boasted the most efficient offense all season lengthy. ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics display the domination, as each unmarried certainly one of their supremacy objectives leads their place in a minimum of one section. Brandon Aiyuk leads all receivers in catch rating (96) and general rating (98), Deebo Samuel leads all receivers in YAC rating (83), George Kittle leads all tight results in general rating (84) and Christian McCaffrey leads all operating backs in catch rating (99). Perhaps a protection can remove certainly one of them, but it surely’s virtually unattainable to prevent all of them.
Mahomes had the worst statistic steady season of his profession in 2023, rating nineteenth in QBR on passing performs. So how did the Chiefs assemble it to the Tremendous Bowl? Smartly, throwing is simplest a part of the way in which Mahomes impacts the offense. And in 2023, enjoying with the worst receiving corps within the league relating to RTM’s catch rating, it’s the alternative forms of performs the place Mahomes has excelled. He has have shyed away from sacks (second-lowest sack price in the back of Josh Allen) and scrambled extremely neatly (second-most scramble EPA, once more in the back of Allen). After all, a high-end Kansas Town protection has made all the extra, too. — Walder
Throughout the matchup
Chiefs LB Nick Bolton vs. 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
The run recreation is a foundational a part of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, so I’m specializing in Bolton’s talent to restrict McCaffrey in early-down conditions. Bolton is fast to key and diagnose and has the play games velocity to scrape to the perimeters. That’s a vital component towards a 49ers unit that can usefulness their formations and movement to achieve quantity benefits to the play games facet. McCaffrey averaged 5.4 yards according to lift this season with 44 rushes of 10 or extra yards. He makes this offense progress. — Bowen
X issue: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs
Pacheco has turn into the undisputed chief of the Chiefs backfield, and his workload displays it. Over the process six profession postseason video games, he has averaged 18.7 touches and 90.5 general yards. There’s a belief that the 49ers’ protection is without doubt one of the best possible within the league. However of their trail to the Tremendous Bowl, they’ve give up a accumulation of speeding yards to operating backs akin to Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Pacheco is the second one Chiefs participant with a speeding landing in 4 consecutive playoff video games. His streak may proceed towards the 49ers in the back of a Chiefs offensive wrinkle that has been splendid this postseason. — Moody
Answering bulky questions
What’s the most important extra with Steve Wilks as 49ers defensive coordinator?
The extra for the 49ers’ protection this season has been a better effort with preventing the run. The 49ers ranked fifteenth in run protection DVOA throughout the steady season nearest rating moment and primary within the earlier two seasons.
The most important factor has been preventing runs that get downfield in lieu than preventing runs proper up entrance. The 49ers’ run prevent price is equal to it was once latter season, 32%. Alternatively, in 2022 the 49ers had been the most efficient protection within the NFL combating second-level runs (5-10 yards) and open-field runs (11 yards or extra). This season, they rank 7th and twenty first in the ones two divisions, respectively.
Terminating season, the only playground the 49ers had a condition towards the run was once decrease yardage. They allowed a 71% conversion price on those runs (3rd ill, fourth ill or target wrinkle with 1-2 yards to progress). This season, they allowed a 79% conversion price on those runs.
Did Travis Kelce whip a step again from his regular Corridor-of-Reputation play games within the steady season?
Sure, completely. However he hasn’t taken 20 steps again into the land of “average tight end.” He’s nonetheless some of the best possible within the industry, despite the fact that he couldn’t fit his earlier superior performances.
This season, I offered a pristine model of my receiving DYAR metric in accordance with routes in lieu than objectives. It does a greater task of valuing the facility of receivers to get at leisure and draw in objectives on a gentle foundation. Kelce led the NFL in 2022 at 642 yards above substitute. Deny alternative tight finish was once above 450. This season, Kelce led the league once more, however simplest with 399 DYAR. Kittle was once proper in the back of him at 395.
ESPN’s receiver monitoring metrics inform a homogeneous tale of a lesser, however nonetheless sturdy, 2023 season. Terminating season, Kelce was once moment in the back of Kittle with a 75 RTM rating. This season, Kelce dropped to 7th with a 58 RTM rating. His at leisure rating and YAC rating dropped fairly, and his catch rating dropped considerably.
We all the time needed to be expecting some abate from Kelce this season. The person is 34 years used! He simply all set the report for receiving yards via a good finish at pace 34 or upper with 984. Tony Gonzalez was once the one alternative tight finish to have a minimum of 850 yards at this pace. (He did it 3 times.)
Alternatively, up to now within the 2023 playoffs, Kelce has stuck 16 of 17 objectives for 191 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s unquestionably higher than his efficiency throughout the steady season. — Schatz
Quarterback matchup
Purdy vs. Mahomes
Decided on via the 49ers with the overall pick out of the 2022 NFL draft, Purdy was once that draft’s Mr. Inappropriate. However Purdy has been anything else however inappropriate to the 49ers. He has been extremely environment friendly and now and then impressive age directing the offense. In simplest 26 profession begins (together with playoffs), Purdy has a report of 21-5. That’s a glowing .808 successful proportion. Via making pitch choices with the soccer, Purdy briefly earned the accept as true with of trainer Kyle Shanahan and the crew’s many proficient playmakers on offense. With the 49ers trailing the Lions via 17 issues at halftime within the NFC Championship Recreation, Purdy stayed cool and led the 49ers’ notable comeback victory that places them again within the Tremendous Bowl for the second one occasion in 5 seasons.
Already an all-time superb, Mahomes can be vying to turn into simplest the 5th quarterback in NFL historical past to have a minimum of 3 Tremendous Bowl championships, following Tom Brady (six), Joe Montana (4), Terry Bradshaw (4) and Troy Aikman (3). Mahomes, Brady, Peyton Manning and Montana are the one QBs to have a minimum of two Tremendous Bowl championships and two Related Press MVP awards. For the 6th consecutive season with Mahomes as their launch signal-caller, the Chiefs reached the AFC Championship Recreation. The one streak longer is the New England Patriots‘ noteceable run of 8 in a row from 2011-18. — Reid
Making a bet nugget
The Chiefs are the 9th crew within the while 20 seasons to drag off dissatisfied wins within the divisional spherical and convention championship. And in keeping with ESPN Stats and Data, six of the former 8 went directly to win the Tremendous Bowl. General, the Chiefs are 12-8 towards the unfold this season, age the 49ers are 9-10. Since 2001, underdogs are 11-11 outright and 15-7 ATS within the Tremendous Bowl.
