Seth Walder
Part of the predictions game is seeing how our forecasts fare. It’s easy to make a prediction, but we also need to check in on them.
In the preseason, I made one bold prediction for every team as part of our preview of the 2025 season. These were big swings — things I thought could happen but would each be an upset. And five weeks into the season, we’ve learned a lot.
So it’s time to revisit those predictions and find out how we are doing. Which ones are on track? Which could still happen? And which were so far off that we might as well make a new one? In some cases, five weeks means everything has changed. In others, not so much. In fact … one preseason prediction already hit!
Let’s dive in now and see where we stand for all 32 teams.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Nailed it
Original prediction: QB Jaxson Dart will make his first start no later than Week 5.
Why we nailed it: Dart started in Week 4 after a slow start from veteran quarterback Russell Wilson, which led to an 0-3 beginning of the season for the Giants. The rookie won in his debut against the Chargers, though he struggled this past Sunday with two interceptions and a 50.2 Total QBR (ninth worst in Week 5) in a loss to the Saints.
On target
Original prediction: TE Dalton Kincaid will record at least 900 receiving yards.
Why it’s on target: Kincaid is on pace for 976 yards (287 through five games). There is still a long way to go, particularly because Kincaid has run routes on only 57% of the Bills’ dropbacks so far this season, but he’s catching everything. Kincaid is sporting a plus-15% catch rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, best of all tight ends with at least 20 targets.
Original prediction: The Panthers will record the fewest sacks in the league.
Why it’s on target: They have sacked opponents just five times, tied with the Bears for the fewest in the league — but Chicago has played only four games with its Week 5 bye. Carolina ranks 29th in pass rush win rate and is not expected to be ahead in many games as the sixth-worst team in ESPN’s Football Power Index. That matters because sacks occur more often when a team is winning.
Original prediction: The Bears will finish in the top six in pass block win rate.
Why it’s on target: Chicago currently ranks fourth with a 69% pass block win rate. There are two big reasons for the turnaround:
The Joe Thuney addition has been huge, with the former Chiefs guard ranking third in PBWR at his position.
Darnell Wright has shown significant improvement, ranking 12th among tackles with a 92% PBWR — up from 44th during his disappointing 2024 campaign (88%).
The Bears going from a bottom-three play-action rate team (19%) to above average (27%) helps, too.
Original prediction: The Bengals will miss the playoffs … again.
Why it’s on target: Joe Burrow suffered a turf toe injury that required surgery, knocking him out of action for at least three months. The Bengals are 0-3 since, having lost each game by at least 13 points. Backup quarterback Jake Browning has played poorly in Burrow’s stead, registering a QBR of 35.3. Because of that, the Bengals have only a 9.2% chance to make the playoffs. I was pretty bullish on Browning at the time of Burrow’s injury, but it hasn’t worked out, and the Bengals acquired Joe Flacco from the Browns on Tuesday.
Original prediction: WR Puka Nacua will lead the NFL in receiving yards.
Why it’s on target: He’s currently leading the league with 588 yards, 54 ahead of Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Nacua has been outrageous, ranking first in target rate (39.1%) among wide receivers with at least 100 routes run, second in yards per route (3.7), second in completed air yards per route (2.4), first in yards after catch (208) and first in receptions over expectation, per Next Gen Stats (8.4). Nacua needs both himself and quarterback Matthew Stafford to stay healthy, but he’s off to a heck of a start.
Original prediction: Running back Jordan Mason will record at least 1,100 rushing yards.
Why it’s on target: Mason is on pace for 1,098, so forgive me for rounding up. Outside of two fumbles, Mason has been what the Vikings hoped for when they traded for him: an effective runner who could pair with veteran Aaron Jones Sr.’s receiving ability (though Jones has missed the past few games because of a hamstring injury). Mason is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has 71 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the eighth most among running backs. The Vikings’ offense has not been as prolific as they hoped, but getting it back to average efficiency would help Mason going forward.
Original prediction: Defensive tackle Moro Ojomo — who entered the season with zero career sacks — will record at least five sacks and finish in the top 10 in pass rush win rate.
Why it’s on target: Ojomo has two sacks and is currently tied for 10th among defensive tackles with a 13% pass rush win rate. The funny part was that this prediction was conceived partially out of belief that the Eagles’ situation fueled Milton Williams‘ numbers and that his replacement would be put in a great spot. And while playing defensive tackle next to Jalen Carter might put players in favorable situations, Williams is also thriving outside that role in New England, too.
Original prediction: Defensive tackle Derrick Harmon will lead rookie defensive tackles in sacks.
Why it’s on target: Considering that Harmon missed the first two games of the season with a sprained MCL, I’m surprised this is still in range. But Harmon’s one sack puts him in a multi-person tie for the rookie defensive tackle sack lead with Jamaree Caldwell and Omarr Norman-Lott. Harmon’s 6% pass rush win rate and 9% pressure rate don’t have me overly optimistic, but then again, he’s playing on a good defensive line. Perhaps that’s enough to overcome the competition.
Original prediction: Edge rusher Bryce Huff will record at least nine sacks.
Why it’s on target: Huff is back. After one year lost in the Philadelphia wilderness, Huff has reemerged in San Francisco playing like his old self for his old coach, Robert Saleh. Huff has three sacks this season, putting him on pace for more than 10. Huff’s 19% pass rush win rate ranks 20th among edge rushers. While Nick Bosa‘s season-ending torn ACL makes it less likely for Huff’s sack rate to stay super high, it could eventually mean more playing time and more opportunities to get there.
1:11
Adam Schefter: Brock Purdy is still the 49ers’ QB1
Adam Schefter tells Pat McAfee that despite Mac Jones’ impressive play, Brock Purdy is still the 49ers’ primary quarterback.
Still a chance …
Original prediction: Nickel cornerback Garrett Williams will lead all slot defenders in yards per coverage snap allowed.
Why there’s still a chance: The good news? Williams currently ranks second in this stat among slot defenders with at least 50 coverage snaps (0.4, behind only the Chargers’ Derwin James Jr.). The bad news? A knee injury in Week 2 landed Williams on the IR. Still, it’s within the realm of possibility that he could return to action and lead the category, especially after his strong start.
Original prediction: Running back Keaton Mitchell will have at least four games with 20-plus fantasy points.
Why there’s still a chance: I know it seems foolish to cling to this prediction considering Mitchell was inactive for the Ravens’ first four games, but I am. Mitchell has been inactive behind Derrick Henry, pass-catching option Justice Hill and kick returner Rasheen Ali. But if Henry were to get hurt, I think Mitchell would be the new top back on early downs.
I had imagined that he would hit this prediction by working in more with Henry and breaking some long runs — referencing his 201 rush yards over expectation on 47 carries in 2023, according to NFL Next Gen Stats — and I suppose that’s still possible. And the upside Mitchell presents is why I am (perhaps stubbornly) continuing to hold onto him in a couple of fantasy leagues.
Original prediction: The Browns will trade guards Joel Bitonio or Wyatt Teller in-season.
Why there’s still a chance: The trade deadline hasn’t happened yet! And the Browns have been, as expected, a disappointment and non-contender. Both players are veterans in the final year of their contracts, and the team has Teven Jenkins as a capable interior substitute. It would make sense to trade at least one of Bitonio or Teller.
Original prediction: WR KaVontae Turpin will record multiple kick returns for touchdowns this season.
Why there’s still a chance: He hasn’t scored a kick return for a touchdown yet, but returns are way up in 2025 thanks to a change in the touchback rule. As a result, Turpin has 16 kick returns already after recording 27 all of last season. And he has recorded an above-average 91 return yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This could still happen.
Original prediction: CB Riley Moss will record at least five interceptions in a breakout third season.
Why there’s still a chance: This is a real long shot considering Moss doesn’t have a pick yet this season and his 1.3 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, is higher than average for an outside corner. But there’s one number that has me holding out some hope: No cornerback in the NFL has been thrown at more than Moss (40 targets). Those extra targets are extra chances at picks. Still, I doubt this comes through.
Original prediction: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson will record at least 100 pass rush wins, something that has happened only twice since the metric was created in 2017.
Why there’s still a chance: Hutchinson is off to a nice start with five sacks through five games, but he’s still well off the 100-win pace. He has 19 pass rush wins to date, putting him on track to reach 65. That would be a nice total, but not historic.
So why still a chance? Hutchinson took a couple of games to get going — which is understandable, considering he was returning after the season-ending broken leg he suffered a year ago — and has shown in the past that he’s capable of putting up huge numbers in streaks (like when he recorded 36 pass rush wins through five games last season).
Original prediction: Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper will be a first- or second-team All-Pro.
Why there’s still a chance: He has posted solid numbers, but not quite like what he did in a semi-small sample last season. His 37% run stop win rate is a bit above average for an off-ball linebacker but nowhere near his 46% from a year ago. Cooper’s 0.9 yards per coverage snap is average for a linebacker, and his 0.5 sacks is nothing to write home about. But it’s a long season, and he’s a promising young player. There’s still time.
Original prediction: The Chiefs will have at least 12 plays that go for 40-plus yards in the regular season.
Why there’s still a chance: Kansas City has recorded two such plays this season, so this is still a long shot. Still, that’s halfway to the season total from a year ago. Plus, we’ll see if the return of wide receiver Rashee Rice following his six-game suspension opens up more plays downfield.
Original prediction: Offensive tackle Joe Alt will win Protector of the Year.
Why there’s still a chance: I was feeling pretty great about this call before Alt suffered a high right ankle sprain. Alt, who moved to left tackle following Rashawn Slater‘s season-ending ruptured patellar tendon, ranks fifth among tackles in pass block win rate (95.3%) and sixth in run block win rate (82.0%). That’s an awfully good combination.
The problem is the injury. If Alt misses another game that would be two games completely missed plus most of a third. It’s still feasible to win an award after missing a game or two, but it becomes more of a long shot with each additional game missed. Hopefully — for Alt, the Chargers and this prediction — he’s back on the field soon.
Original prediction: WR Chris Olave will be a top-15 wide receiver in total fantasy points.
Why there’s still a chance: He’s not that far off. Olave currently ranks 23rd among wide receivers in fantasy points with 61.4. But I think there’s good reason to believe he’ll move up the ranks as the season continues. Olave ranks second in expected fantasy points, according to ESPN’s Mike Clay.
Original prediction: The Jets will lead the league in run rate over expectation.
Why there’s still a chance: They have an 8% run rate over expectation, which ranks fifth best in the NFL. That’s well within striking distance of the lead. (The Saints are at 10%.) And I don’t see any reason why that should change since Justin Fields is still at quarterback. Remember, this is run rate over expectation we’re looking at, so the Jets can still lead the category even if they continue to fall behind in games.
Original prediction: Edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record double-digit sacks in a breakout season.
Why there’s still a chance: With only one sack this season, I feel like I should probably throw this one out. But … I’m holding tough with my optimism, as Diaby has a 20% pass rush win rate at edge (tied for 17th best) and an electric get-off. He crosses the line of scrimmage in 0.75 seconds on average, fifth best among all players with at least 80 pass rushes. I still think Diaby has a chance in Todd Bowles’ blitz-happy defense.
1:19
McAfee wonders if Bucs are a ‘team of destiny’
Pat McAfee and A.J. Hawk discuss the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ electric win over the Seahawks.
Original prediction: The Commanders will finish below .500.
Why there’s still a chance: The Commanders are 3-2, but that includes two games (and one loss) without Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Daniels has a 45.4 QBR so far, a disappointment after his rookie season. But he has played only three games, and the defense has been better than I expected — 16th in EPA per play (0.03) and a shocking sixth in pass rush win rate (45.4%). I think it’s unlikely the Commanders will finish sub-.500 now, but it’s the NFL. An 8-9 or 7-10 season is well within the cards.
Throw it out, start over
Original prediction: Center Ryan Neuzil will rank in the top five in run block win rate.
Why we’re throwing it out: Neuzil ranks 24th in run block win rate (63.5%), more than 10 percentage points outside the top five. I don’t think he’d be able to make up that gap.
New bold prediction: RB Bijan Robinson will lead all running backs in rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, by the end of the regular season. Is it really bold to call for a great running back to be great? Maybe not. But consider that Robinson is more than 100 rushing yards over expectation behind the current leader (improbably, the Cowboys’ Javonte Williams at 133) with only 29 on the season. Robinson finished seventh in the category last season with 199.
Original prediction: Cornerback Kamari Lassiter will make the Pro Bowl.
Why we’re throwing it out: Lassiter hasn’t been bad or anything. It’s just hard to make it to the Pro Bowl, and his numbers thus far haven’t suggested there’s going to be the required second-year breakout. Lassiter’s 1.2 yards per coverage snap and 17% target rate are both a little higher than average for an outside cornerback, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
New bold prediction: Woody Marks will be a top-20 fantasy running back from Week 6 on. That might not have seemed so bold a week ago, but after Marks managed 24 yards on seven carries with zero receptions in Week 5, I’m sure the consensus has cooled on him. Still, Marks has registered 21 rush yards over expectation this season, and I’m assuming that Nick Chubb‘s role will slowly shrink as the season progresses given his age and wear and tear.
Original prediction: WR Adonai Mitchell will record at least 700 receiving yards.
Why we’re throwing it out: Mitchell is on pace for 465 receiving yards despite a hot start from the Colts’ offense. He also saw his role severely limited in Week 5 after fumbling the ball before crossing the goal line in Week 4.
New bold prediction: CB Charvarius Ward will be named a first- or second-team All-Pro. Ward is off to an excellent start to his first season in Indianapolis after signing a three-year deal with the team and leaving the 49ers this offseason. He has recorded 0.7 yards per coverage snap, which is sixth best among outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps in 2025.
Original prediction: The percentage of snaps Travis Hunter plays will total at least 145% if we add offense and defense.
Why we’re throwing it out: Hunter has played a combined 98% of snaps thus far at wide receiver and cornerback. Given that the results have been a little disappointing thus far, it’s hard to imagine that increasing to anywhere near the benchmark I set.
New bold prediction: OT Anton Harrison will reach the Pro Bowl. The 2023 first-round pick is having a breakout season, with a 92% pass block win rate that currently ranks 13th among all tackles. It’s a big step up from where he was last season (83%, 60th).
0:35
Herm Edwards: Travis Hunter would play 90% on defense for me
Herm Edwards details why he would play Travis Hunter primarily on defense and situationally on offense.
Original prediction: Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will be an NFL head coach in 2026.
Why we’re throwing it out: It’s not impossible, but the idea here was that the Raiders were going to have enough offensive success to throw Kelly’s name back into consideration. That certainly hasn’t been the case, as the Raiders rank 29th in EPA per play on offense, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
New bold prediction: WR Tre Tucker will record 900 or more receiving yards. He has had a great start to the season, with an impressive 2.2 yards per route run. The Raiders also might be behind in quite a few contests throughout the rest of the season, leading to more and more downfield shots to Tucker.
Original prediction: WR Tyreek Hill will be traded.
Why we’re throwing it out: There was probably a decent chance of this happening … but then Hill dislocated his knee against the Jets in Week 4 and will miss the rest of this season. He’s not getting traded now.
New bold prediction: Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips will be traded. Let’s stick with the same theme here, because the thesis is similar: The Dolphins ought to be thinking about the future at the trade deadline. Phillips is in the final year of his contract, and Miami isn’t in that great of a cap situation — currently $10 million over the 2026 cap, per OverTheCap.com. It could make sense for the Dolphins to deal Phillips to a contender in exchange for draft capital. Bradley Chubb could be a candidate here, too, but Phillips will garner a stronger return.
Original prediction: Free agent addition DT Milton Williams will finish outside the top 10 in pass rush win rate and have fewer than five sacks.
Why we’re throwing it out: I’m not sure I could have been more wrong. Williams has completely silenced those that questioned his signing — myself very much included. He currently has 2.5 sacks, and his 17% pass rush win rate ranks third at defensive tackle.
New bold prediction: Williams will be a first-team All-Pro. Let’s flip this a full 180 degrees, shall we? First team is tough to pull off, of course, but Williams could find his way there if he keeps up his strong numbers.
Original prediction: Linebacker Ernest Jones IV will lead off-ball linebackers in pressures.
Why we’re throwing it out: Jones has just one pressure this season, and he’s rushing the passer on only 8% of opponent dropbacks. I don’t think this one’s happening.
New bold prediction: Rookie WR Tory Horton will record multiple games with 100 or more yards this season. He hasn’t exceeded 40 yards in a game this season, but there are good signs like his 2.4 yards per route run versus man coverage. Plus, Horton runs a high rate of vertical routes, which means he’s more likely to be a boom-or-bust player in terms of production. I’m banking on a couple of booms.
Original prediction: QB Cam Ward will have under a 5% sack rate.
Why we’re throwing it out: Ward has a 10% sack rate, third worst among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. It doesn’t look like that’s going to improve much the rest of the season.
New bold prediction: DT Jeffery Simmons will be a first-team All-Pro for the first time in his career. I’ve now handed out both first-team All-Pros for defensive tackles here (see my new Patriots prediction), so we’re going for the exacta. Simmons has 3.5 sacks already and currently leads all defensive tackles with a 22% pass rush win rate. To put up those numbers on a team that has constantly been behind is impressive.
