Mike Clay
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 14, which kicks off Thursday night with the Dallas Cowboys at the Detroit Lions.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are only provided for Sunday’s main slate, which is why there are no values for the games scheduled for Thursday, Sunday night or Monday. For a closer look at the best values for Sunday’s main slate, you can also take a look at Week 14’s DraftKings DFS cheat sheet.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
DAL-DET | SEA-ATL | CIN-BUF | TEN-CLE | WAS-MIN | MIA-NYJ | NO-TB
IND-JAX | PIT-BAL | DEN-LV| CHI-GB| LAR-ARI | HOU-KC| PHI-LAC
Projected score: Lions 29, Cowboys 27
Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jameson Williams, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) left last week’s game after four snaps and he’s not expected to play this week. In his place, the Lions’ WR usage was as follows: Williams (29 routes, 10 targets), Isaac TeSlaa (29 routes, two targets) and Tom Kennedy (22 routes, four targets). Williams’ heavy usage helped him to season-high marks in targets, catches (seven), receiving yards (144) and fantasy points (26.9). He should be locked into lineups against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most TDs (21) and fantasy points to receivers this season.
Even with recent reinforcements, Dallas has surrendered 40-plus fantasy points to the Eagles’ and Chiefs’ WR rooms over the past two weeks. With St. Brown and Kalif Raymond sidelined, TeSlaa and Kennedy make for flex lottery tickets, though both will be risky considering neither has reached 12 fantasy points in any game this season.
Shadow Report: The Lions are getting healthier at corner, but it’s tough to ignore how generous they’ve been against receivers as of late. Detroit sits fifth in fantasy points (first over the past eight weeks) and second in touchdowns (19) allowed to the position this season. Wan’Dale Robinson (30.6 points), Dontayvion Wicks (28.0) and Christian Watson (18.3) have all produced big games against them during their past two games. Dallas’ elite WR duo of Lamb and Pickens should be upgraded, especially with Terrion Arnold sidelined.
Over/under: 56.1 (highest)
Win probability: Lions 59% (13th highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Falcons 19
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Drake London
Fantasy scoop: Zach Charbonnet did it again. The third-year back found the end zone on Sunday and now has eight touchdowns in 11 games. Despite all the scoring, Charbonnet has reached 12.5 fantasy points only twice. The 14 touches he saw on Sunday actually match his highest total since Week 2 (15), and he has cleared 55 yards once this season. The primary reason for the lack of fantasy upside is a minimal receiving role. Charbonnet has 67 yards on 10 targets this season and has been held without a single target in two straight and three of his past four.
Goalline work aside, Kenneth Walker III remains Seattle’s lead back, which will continue to limit Charbonnet to nothing more than an extremely TD-dependent flex with slightly more value in non-PPR formats. On the plus side, both backs get a boost this week against a Falcons defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs.
Over/under: 42 (9th)
Win probability: Seahawks 65% (9th)
Projected score: Bills 30, Bengals 24
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, James Cook III, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Dalton Kincaid
Fantasy scoop: Kincaid has been out since Week 10, but if the third-year tight end is able to return this week, he should be in lineups in what is the best possible matchup for tight ends by far. Cincinnati has surrendered the most targets, catches, yards, TDs and fantasy points, as well as a league-high 13.0 yards per reception to the position. Tight ends are averaging 22.9 fantasy PPG against the Bengals, with their past two opponents (Patriots and Ravens) both generating 10 catches and 150-plus yards from the position.
Kincaid has yet to clear six targets in any game, but he has been bailed out by touchdowns (four in eight games) and will have a real shot to add to that total in this game. If Kincaid remains out, Dawson Knox will be an intriguing Week 14 sleeper, though his underwhelming usage and production (yet to clear four targets or 37 yards in a game this season) adds some risk.
Shadow Report: Chase is a good bet to draw Christian Benford shadow coverage this week. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points in the game), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9), Travis Kelce (10.6), Emeka Egbuka (9.0), Nico Collins (8.5) and DK Metcalf (6.2) on their perimeter routes this season. The eight wide receivers averaged a respectable 13.5 fantasy points, though three straight have been held to single digits. Perhaps Benford’s recent success will limit Chase’s ceiling a bit, but Burrow’s top target remains a strong WR1 option. Higgins gets a slight value boost on the other side against Tre’Davious White and rookie Maxwell Hairston.
Over/under: 53.8 (2nd)
Win probability: Bills 73% (3rd)
Projected score: Browns 19, Titans 12
Lineup lock: Quinshon Judkins
Fantasy scoop: Harold Fannin Jr. has all but taken over as Cleveland’s clear No. 1 tight end. After playing similar snaps to David Njoku during Weeks 1-11, Fannin has out-snapped his veteran counterpart 98-53 over the past two weeks and leads the Browns with 11 targets during that span (Njoku has only two). Fannin has handled a target share of at least 20% in seven consecutive games and sits no lower than eighth at the position in targets and catches on the season.
Of course, with Cleveland struggling to generate consistent offense, Fannin has been limited to three touchdowns (including one this past weekend) and sits 16th at the position in fantasy PPG. Tennessee has been good against tight ends (only two have reached 12 points against them), so Fannin should be viewed as no more than a fringe starting option this week.
Shadow Report: Cleveland’s wide receivers have a very appealing rest-of-season schedule, starting this week against a Titans defense that has allowed the eighth-most catches, second-most yards and seventh-most fantasy points to the position. Tennessee has surrendered the highest catch rate (70%) and third-highest yards per target (9.5) to receivers.
An opposing wideout has scored 15-plus fantasy points in each of the Titans’ past five games (Jaxon Smith-Njigba 37.1, Nico Collins 24.2, Michael Pittman Jr 23.5, Jakobi Meyers 21.3, Quentin Johnston 15.3). Top Cleveland receiver Jerry Jeudy has been tough to count on (under 12 fantasy points in 11 of 12 games), but we’re not afraid of probable Darrell Baker Jr. shadow coverage, and this matchup is enough to make Jeudy a viable flex flier in deep leagues.
Over/under: 31 (lowest)
Win probability: Browns 72% (4th)
Projected score: Commanders 22, Vikings 19
Lineup lock: Justin Jefferson
Fantasy scoop: Chris Rodriguez Jr. has overtaken Jacory Croskey-Merritt as the lead rusher in Washington. Rodriguez ran for 41 yards and one TD on 11 carries Sunday night after posting a 15-79-0 rushing line the week prior. Rodriguez has found the end zone in four of his past six games, though he has yet to clear 12.5 fantasy points in any game this season. The reason? A near-complete lack of receiving work. Rodriguez has a grand total of 6 yards on two targets this season.
The 2023 sixth-round pick has proved to be a solid rusher (career 4.7 YPC), but he remains in a committee with Croskey-Merritt and passing-down specialist Jeremy McNichols. Rodriguez is the top fantasy option of the trio and could see added volume this week (Minnesota has faced a league-high 329 RB carries this season), but he’s no more than a low-ceiling flex option.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Minnesota’s receivers against a Washington defense that sits top-six in yards, touchdowns, fantasy points, catch rate and yards per target allowed to the position. Seven receivers have reached 20 fantasy points against Washington and five of those have been during the Commanders’ past six games. Minnesota’s offensive struggles have made it hard to trust any of the skill players, but this matchup suggests Jefferson (a lineup lock) and Jordan Addison (WR3/flex) have a shot at a respectable showing.
Over/under: 40.4 (11th)
Win probability: Commanders 60% (11th)
Projected score: Dolphins 23, Jets 19
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy scoop: Last week, we examined John Metchie III‘s emergence in the Jets’ offense. This week, it’s Adonai Mitchell who is worth a look. The ex-Colt has handled a massive 29.1% target share in his three games with the team, and after struggling to 52 yards on 13 targets during his first two games, he exploded for 102 yards and one TD on 12 targets against Atlanta on Sunday. Mitchell holds a seven-target edge on Metchie for the team lead since Week 11, and his 449 air yards during that span are second most in the NFL, behind only Michael Wilson.
The heavy usage of Mitchell and Metchie (who had eight targets but only 19 yards on Sunday) is enough to vault them both into the flex discussion and to make them appealing in DFS (Mitchell is valued at $4,600 and Metchie $4,500 this week), but inconsistent efficiency makes both boom/bust options.
Over/under: 41.4 (10th)
Win probability: Dolphins 63% (10th)
Projected score: Buccaneers 23, Saints 17
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Chris Olave, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: Irving returned from injury on Sunday and Tampa Bay was not shy about quickly reinstating him as the lead back. Irving soaked up 17 carries and a pair of targets on 31 snaps, compared to two carries and three targets on 21 snaps for Rachaad White and two carries on eight snaps for Sean Tucker. Irving didn’t show much rust, racking up 81 yards and one TD on 19 touches. The second-year back now has 18-plus touches in all five of his appearances this season, averaging 102.2 yards and 17.6 fantasy PPG during the span.
Bucs RBs are set up with one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules, which locks in Irving as a viable RB1 option moving forward, including in Week 14 against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to the position. White and Tucker should revert to your bench or waivers.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Saints receivers against a Bucs defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers over the past eight weeks — both overall and to the perimeter. When these teams met in Week 8, both Olave (14.3 points) and Rashid Shaheed (16.5) put together strong fantasy outings. Shaheed has since been traded, but Devaughn Vele has replaced him opposite Olave and is fresh off a career day in which he caught all eight of his targets for a career-high 93 yards and one TD. Both Saints receivers get a boost this week, with Olave a lineup lock and Vele a deep-league flex option and strong DFS value ($3,700 at DraftKings).
Over/under: 39.2 (12th)
Win probability: Buccaneers 71% (5th)
Projected score: Colts 25, Jaguars 22
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: Jakobi Meyers‘ ascent continues. After posting a 6-90-1 receiving line on Sunday, he has progressively scored more fantasy points each week since joining the Jaguars in Week 10. Meyers has produced 50-plus yards in three straight games, as well as one TD and 15-plus fantasy points in two straight. He has seen exactly six targets in three straight, and while that may not seem high, game script is a notable variable, as his team-high 23% target share during that span is both solid and easily highest on the team.
The script may call for more passing this week in what projects as a tighter game against a good Colts team, which is good news for Meyers’ fantasy outlook. On the other hand, he’ll need to battle now-healthy Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange for targets against a solid Colts defense. Meyers is trending up but is best viewed as a WR3/flex.
Over/under: 46.8 (4th)
Win probability: Colts 60% (12th)
Projected score: Ravens 24, Steelers 19
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Flowers is trending in the wrong direction, having produced only 6 yards on seven targets in Week 13. Granted, a long touchdown was wiped out by a borderline interference call, but Flowers has failed to find the end zone since Week 1 (not a fluke considering he has one end zone target to his name). A hefty 27.6% target share has allowed Flowers a solid fantasy floor (11-plus fantasy points in nine of 12 games), but the lack of scoring in Baltimore’s low-volume pass game has severely limited his ceiling (under 12.5 fantasy points in five straight and seven of his past eight).
Flowers, who sits 10th among receivers in receptions, is set up with a good Week 14 matchup. Pittsburgh has allowed the most catches and yards as well as the second-most fantasy points to WRs. So despite the concerns, Flowers remains on the WR2 radar.
Over/under: 42.5 (7th)
Win probability: Ravens 66% (7th)
Projected score: Broncos 24, Raiders 13
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: It appears that Denver may have made an adjustment to its WR deployment during its Week 12 bye. After playing a depth role during most of his rookie season to date, Pat Bryant played a career-high 70% of the team’s offensive snaps on Sunday night. He handled seven targets for the second game in a row. Sutton (39 routes) remains Denver’s top receiver, with Bryant second (35), Troy Franklin (30) seemingly receiving a slight demotion and Marvin Mims Jr. (18) now clearly fourth in line.
Bryant isn’t yet worthy of lineup consideration (he has yet to clear 13.2 fantasy points in a game), but he’s a fine bench stash and DFS option ($3,400). Franklin, meanwhile, has hit for the occasional big game this season, but he has also been held below 13 points nine times and any dip in usage would be crushing to his flex appeal. He’s a risky Week 14 flex, even in a plus matchup against the Raiders.
Shadow Report: Raiders receivers are best avoided this week against a terrific Denver defense that has surrendered the fewest touchdowns (four) and fifth-fewest fantasy points, as well as just 6.4 yards per target (second lowest) to receivers. When these teams met in Week 10, Las Vegas receivers totaled 76 yards and 16.3 fantasy points on 12 targets. None reached double-digit fantasy points. Pat Surtain II, who was sidelined for that game, very well could shadow Tre Tucker this week. Either way, Raiders WRs should be nowhere near your lineup.
Over/under: 37.2 (13th)
Win probability: Broncos 86% (highest)
Projected score: Packers 28, Bears 23
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Rome Odunze
Fantasy scoop: Has Christian Watson returned to the top of the Packers’ WR depth chart? Recent usage suggests the answer is yes, as his 22 targets are seven more than any of his teammates over the past three games. The heavy usage, which included a career-high 10 targets on Thanksgiving, has allowed two 18-plus-point efforts over the past three weeks.
Watson has produced a respectable 45-plus yards in all six appearances this season and leads the NFL with 648 air yards since his Week 8 return. It’s possible he’ll see a dip in target share once Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed return (which could come this week), but the good news is that he has a plus matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the third-most touchdowns (16) to receivers this season. Watson is a fine WR3.
Over/under: 51.4 (3rd)
Win probability: Packers 69% (6th)
Projected score: Rams 26, Cardinals 18
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: With Harrison back in the fold last week, Michael Wilson crashed back to earth. The third-year receiver was nothing short of elite with Harrison sidelined during Weeks 11 and 12 (25-303-0 receiving line on 33 targets), but he was limited to 3-36-0 on seven targets Sunday. The good news is that Wilson remained an every-down player and the seven targets were an uptick from the 4.3 per game he averaged in his first nine games with Harrison this season. Additionally, Wilson soaked up 90 air yards on Sunday after reaching that mark only once during Weeks 1 through 10.
Especially with Jacoby Brissett remaining under center (as opposed to low-pass-volume Kyler Murray), there’s reason to believe Wilson can remain in the WR3/flex mix. That includes this week against the Rams, especially with Harrison likely to be shadowed. Speaking of which …
Shadow Report: Harrison can expect shadow coverage from Emmanuel Forbes Jr. this week. Forbes has traveled nearly full-time in four of the Rams’ past five games, including matchups with Rashid Shaheed (who scored 11.8 fantasy points in the game), Jauan Jennings (19.1), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (19.5) and Tetairoa McMillan (11.3). The Rams have been exceptional against the pass (second-lowest EPA allowed), but they face quite a bit of volume (eighth-most pass attempted faced), which is why they sit ninth in catches and midpack in fantasy points allowed to receivers. Harrison is fine to start as usual, and his DraftKings cost ($5,400) is appealing, though a boom game is unlikely against this defense.
Over/under: 44.3 (6th)
Win probability: Rams 77% (2nd)
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Texans 20
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: Dalton Schultz continues to remain a featured part of the Houston offense, and his 59 receptions in 12 games actually match his total in 19 games (including the playoffs) last season. Schultz posted a solid 7-55-0 receiving line on eight targets on Sunday and has seen eight-plus targets in five of his past seven games. Schultz sits third at the position in targets and catches this season, as well as seventh in yardage, but some bad luck in the scoring department (one TD, 3.1 expected) has limited him to a 15th-place standing in fantasy PPG.
Schultz’s heavy usage could be even higher this week with Houston likely to be throwing the ball plenty in what projects as a competitive game against the Chiefs. He’s a fine TE1 and could pay off in a big way down the stretch with a bit of regression to the mean in the scoring department.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Kansas City’s receivers against an elite Houston defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position, as well as the second fewest to the perimeter. The Texans have allowed the lowest catch rate (54%) and seven TDs to the position. Only five receivers have reached 13 fantasy points against them, and the only two who reached 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua.
Over/under: 44.8 (5th)
Win probability: Chiefs 65% (8th)
Projected score: Chargers 22, Eagles 20
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey
Fantasy scoop: Oronde Gadsden II is doing his best Quentin Johnston impression, following up four straight solid-to-strong fantasy outings with a bunch of duds. During Weeks 6-9, the rookie tight end produced five-plus catches and 68-plus yards in all four games, averaging 17.9 fantasy PPG during the stretch. During his most recent three games, he has totaled just six catches, 81 yards and 14.1 fantasy points.
The good news is that Gadsden remains a featured part of the Chargers’ offense, having handled a 16.7% target share during the three-game slide. The bad news is that the Eagles have allowed the second-fewest yards, lowest yards per target (5.2) and fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. No tight end has reached 14 fantasy points against them this season. Gadsden is a fringe starting option.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Philadelphia’s receivers against a zone-heavy Chargers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers this season, including the fewest to the perimeter and third fewest to the slot. Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest yards and only six TDs to the position. Brown (90% perimeter) will primarily work against Donte Jackson and Cam Hart on the boundary, with Smith (59% slot) set to see plenty of Tarheeb Still inside.
Over/under: 42.1 (8th)
Win probability: Chargers 54% (lowest)
