Week 17 of the NFL season gets underway with a Christmas Day tripleheader of division rivalry games.
A pair of NFC East foes kicks off the action when the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) visit the Washington Commanders (4-11). Next up is an NFC North tilt, with the Detroit Lions (8-7) trying to keep their playoff hopes alive on the road against the Minnesota Vikings (7-8).
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) host the Denver Broncos (12-3) in an AFC West clash to wrap up the day.
Thinking of betting the games? Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder offer betting and daily fantasy insights.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
Jump to:
DAL-WAS: Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
DET-MIN: Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
DEN-KC: Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
Both Dallas and Washington have already been eliminated from playoff contention. The Cowboys have lost three straight, and the Commanders are coming off a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Washington has dealt with a plethora of injuries, most notably to starting quarterback Jayden Daniels, and Dallas’ defense has been exploited by opposing offenses all year.
The Cowboys wiped out the Commanders 44-22 in their first matchup this season.
Dallas is a touchdown favorite Thursday in a matchup that has the third-highest point total of the week.
Game bet
Total points OVER 50.5 (-118)
Maldonado: The Cowboys dictate pace. When they score, Washington will be forced out of its comfort zone and into chaos. That’s where the points come from: scrambles, busted coverages, short fields and quick drives. The Commanders don’t slow the game down when trailing; they speed up and make mistakes. Dallas is efficient enough to capitalize every time. Control on one side and desperation on the other creates a fast, messy scoring loop. That environment favors points.
Notable player props, bets
1:33
Daniel Dopp: CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens both top-15 WRs for Week 17
Daniel Dopp breaks down the fantasy performances of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. the Chargers ahead of a matchup vs. the Commanders.
George Pickens OVER 80.5 yards receiving (-110)
Bowen: Pickens had 130 yards receiving in the Week 16 game versus the Los Angeles Chargers and has posted 88 or more in four of his past six. Good matchups here on the perimeter against the Washington secondary, too. Deep-ball throws.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-114)
Moody: Lamb has cleared this line in three of his past five games and has averaged 9.0 targets per game over that stretch. He’s in a good spot against a Commanders defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game this season. Lamb also cleared this number against Washington back in Week 7.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Dak Prescott ($16,500) has thrown for 290 or more yards — with at least two touchdowns — in four of his past six games. And he’ll have matchup edges at multiple levels of the field versus the Washington defense. Volume day in the pass game for Dallas.
Also in my lineup: Jake Ferguson ($6,200). Let’s play for Ferguson as a red zone target in this matchup. In the Week 7 head-to-head game versus Washington, Ferguson had two touchdown grabs. He’s an underneath outlet for Dak who can be schemed up inside the 10-yard line.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): CeeDee Lamb ($15,900). This script feeds him. Dallas dictates, Washington chases and coverage breaks late. Lamb thrives in space, piling up catches, yards and red zone looks. If the Cowboys can push into the 40s like I think they can, or even the 30s, Lamb is the most direct path to generating that production.
Also in my lineup: Dak Prescott ($11,000) should stay efficient and aggressive, especially if the Commanders score just enough to keep him throwing. He stacks cleanly with Lamb, capturing every touchdown path this offense creates. If the over in the game hits, it’s because of Prescott.
Moody’s recommendation
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Dak Prescott ($16,500) averaged 291.3 passing yards and 3.6 touchdowns per game in his past three meetings with the Commanders. Washington’s defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Cowboys have covered five straight meetings and eight of the past nine meetings.
The Commanders are 5-10 ATS this season, tied for the worst record in the NFL this season. They are 3-9 ATS as underdogs.
Six straight Commanders home games have gone over the total. Five straight Cowboys road games have gone over the total. Overs are 11-4 in Cowboys games this season, the highest rate in the NFL.
The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS on short rest this season and 0-3 ATS in their past three games overall.
1:32
Why Foxworth isn’t ready to close the window on the Lions
Domonique Foxworth and Dan Orlovsky break down what the Lions’ disappointing season means for their Super Bowl chances moving forward.
The Lions are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Vikings are playing out the string of a disappointing season.
Max Brosmer will be making his second start for the Vikings, who defeated the Lions in Week 9 with J.J. McCarthy under center.
The Vikings won that game by three but are 7.5-point underdogs at home Thursday against the Lions.
Game bet
Lions -6 (alt line -147)
Maldonado: Detroit lost the first meeting by three despite outgaining Minnesota and displaying efficient passing. The Lions left points on the field through red zone failures, a fumble and special teams mistakes. Minnesota needed its ideal script to win and still barely escaped. If the Lions play even a slightly cleaner game, the gap shows. They have the offensive ceiling and margin to separate.
Notable player props, bets
Jared Goff OVER 241.5 passing yards (-114)
Moody: Even though the Vikings’ secondary hasn’t been kind to quarterbacks all season, Goff and the Lions will be aggressive in a must-win game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Goff has cleared this line in eight of his past 10 games, including a matchup against Minnesota earlier this season. With one of the league’s top wide receiver duos in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, he’s well equipped to go over this number.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-111)
Bowen: Gibbs has at least seven receptions and 45 yards receiving in three of his past four games. And he will get opportunities as an underneath target/blitz outlet versus the Vikings’ pressure-heavy defense.
Lions D/ST to score anytime TD (+475)
Walder: Need I remind you what happened in Max Brosmer‘s last start? In that game — granted, it was against the Seattle Seahawks — he recorded a 5.0 QBR. This will be start No. 2. The Vikings’ offense has provided feasting opportunities for opposing defenses all year, and most of that has been with J.J. McCarthy as a starter. It can only get better with his backup in. I and my defensive touchdown model are very happy to continue to bet on Minnesota delivering a catastrophic turnover at these odds. My model makes the price here +326.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jahmyr Gibbs (17,100). The rushing efficiency has declined for Gibbs over the past four weeks, but I’ll take his dual-threat upside. Gibbs has seven or more receptions in three of his past five games, and we know he’s a home run hitter as a ball carrier when he finds open turf.
Also in my lineup: Isaac TeSlaa ($3,400) is a touchdown-dependent player in the lineup, but he also has touchdown receptions in three of his past four games. He can stretch the field or use his frame and ball skills as a red zone target.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Amon-Ra St. Brown ($16.200). The Lions leaned on him the first time, and Minnesota struggled to limit his volume. If the Lions control game script, St. Brown’s target floor and red zone usage give him a shot at a slate-breaking score.
Also in my lineup: Jahmyr Gibbs ($11,400). Detroit needs more run efficiency than it had in the first matchup, and Gibbs’ explosiveness gives him multi-touch upside through both rushing and receiving. If the Lions play from ahead, Gibbs’ role expands.
Moody’s recommendation
In my lineup: Aaron Jones Sr. ($5,700) is an intriguing option with the Vikings potentially leaning more on the running game as J.J. McCarthy deals with a right hand injury. The matchup is favorable, and Minnesota’s offensive line ranks second in run block win rate. Jaylen Warren (32.1 fantasy points) and Kenneth Gainwell (23.8) both posted strong Week 16 performances against the Lions.
Walder’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jahmyr Gibbs ($17,100). The Lions have their backs against the wall and are facing a Brian Flores defense against a backup quarterback. To me, that sounds like it’s time to dial up a huge Gibbs game. It will probably be a popular selection, but there are some decent lower-cost options in this game to make up for it.
Also in my lineup: Lions D/ST ($4,200). And here is one of those low-cost options. I make the Lions the most likely defensive/special teams unit in the league to score a touchdown this week, despite being quite a bit cheaper than the Denver Broncos D/ST, so I want to capitalize on that opportunity here.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Lions are 14-2 ATS in their past 16 games after a loss (15-1 outright). Last week snapped a 15-game winning streak following a loss.
The Lions are 13-2 ATS as road favorites since 2023 and 8-1 ATS since the start of last season.
The Lions are 8-1 ATS against the Vikings under Dan Campbell.
Five straight Lions games have gone over the total. Overs are 10-5 in Lions games, the second-highest over rate in the NFL.
The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their past six games. The Vikings are 3-0 ATS in their past three games.
0:55
John Elway impressed by Bo Nix’s maturity level
John Elway joins Rich Eisen and breaks down how Broncos quarterback Bo Nix’s maturity has been impressive.
The Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL and currently hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Things are going well.
Things aren’t going so well for the Chiefs, who lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in Week 15 and have already been eliminated from the playoff race.
The Broncos can clinch the AFC West with a win at Kansas City and a Chargers loss on Saturday.
Denver had its 11-game winning streak snapped last week but is a 13.5-point favorite Thursday, tied for the biggest spread of the week.
Game bet
Total points UNDER 36.5 (-112)
Maldonado: Gross total, but it makes sense because Kansas City’s offense can’t sustain drives, even less so without Patrick Mahomes. The stat sheet shows severe third-down issues, limited explosive plays and red zone failures that cap scoring upside. Denver doesn’t need to push tempo or chase points, especially with the defensive pressure that shortens games, forces punts and protects leads.
Notable player props, bets
1:03
Is RJ Harvey a good fantasy play vs. Chiefs?
Daniel Dopp offers his fantasy forecast for RJ Harvey vs. the Chiefs in Week 17.
Bo Nix OVER 227.5 passing yards (-113)
Bowen: Nix has thrown for 300 or more yards in three of his past four games. Timing throws here, and the ball location is becoming more consistent. Take Nix to hit the over versus the Chiefs.
Nix UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (-126)
Walder: The Broncos are a pass-leaning team, but this bet is all about game script. With the Broncos so heavily favored against a Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs team, there’s a good chance Denver gets out to a big lead and focuses on the running game to wind the clock. Even before then, the Broncos will surely be looking for a low-variance game plan in a contest they should win easily. I make the fair price on this under -168.
Courtland Sutton OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-114)
Moody: Sutton has been Nix’s most trusted target this season and has cleared this line in four of his past five games, averaging 9.2 targets and 13.6 yards per reception over that span. Denver is likely to lean on the passing game against a Chiefs defense that has been devastated by injuries, which bodes well for Sutton.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Bo Nix ($15,500). As I mentioned earlier, Nix has been producing as a thrower, and that includes the Week 12 head-to-head game versus the Chiefs where he had 295 yards passing. Nix also gives you a dual-threat element on scrambles.
Also in my lineup: Courtland Sutton ($9,000) has seen a spike in target volume, with at least 10 in his past three games. Plus, Sutton has a touchdown reception in three of his past four. I’ll take that in the lineup versus a Chiefs team playing out the regular-season schedule at this point.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Broncos D/ST ($8,400). Denver benefits from game script and the quarterback mismatch. Pressure, sacks and turnover chances rise against a limited Chiefs offense.
Also in my lineup: Courtland Sutton ($9,000) remains Denver’s most reliable red zone and chain-moving option. In a slow, controlled game, he absorbs high-leverage spots, offering touchdown equity without requiring a high-volume passing environment.
Moody’s recommendation
In my lineup: RJ Harvey ($6,500) has scored at least 21 fantasy points in three of his past four games. His workload is worth monitoring as he continues to recover from a rib injury, but he flashed explosiveness on limited touches in Week 16. Harvey remains effective as both a runner and receiver behind a Broncos offensive line that ranks fifth in run block win rate.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their past seven games and 5-10 ATS this season, tied for worst in the NFL.
The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their past seven meetings against the Chiefs with four straight covers (3-0 ATS in the Bo Nix era).
Five straight meetings have gone under the total.
The Broncos are 0-4 ATS as road favorites this season and 2-8 ATS overall as favorites.
Unders are 11-4 in Chiefs games, tied for the highest under rate in the NFL. Unders are 9-1 in the Chiefs’ past 10 games. Unders are 8-0 following Chiefs losses this season.
