Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Now that five weeks are in the books, only the most recent five weeks’ numbers will be used going forward.
“Adj. FPA,” or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (at Baltimore Ravens). He’s playing some of his best football over the past two weeks, he’s performing exceptionally on deep throws (fourth-ranked 133.7 passer rating on throws at least 20 yards downfield), and he has arguably the best No. 1-2 wide receiver combination in football in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams (209.7 fantasy points combined, 47.4 more than any other team’s top two). Now Stafford enters Week 6 with nine days’ rest, facing a Ravens defense that is injury-ravaged and performing horribly through five weeks. DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck), a key to their pass rush, is out for the season, and S Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey and LB Roquan Smith are all question marks. With all four sidelined last week, C.J. Stroud scored 28.76 fantasy points against these Ravens.
Others to like: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Miami Dolphins); Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (versus Dallas Cowboys); Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (at Washington Commanders).
Matchup to avoid: Justin Fields, New York Jets (versus Denver Broncos). He goes from one of the most favorable matchups in the Cowboys to one of the toughest in the Broncos, and if his mobility makes you less apt to fret about his matchups, consider that 20.50 of Fields’ 25.92 fantasy points against the former last week came in the final 19 minutes and 33 seconds and in clear garbage time, during which time he had only two rushing attempts. Fields won’t have it anywhere near as easy in London against the Broncos. They’re ranked top-10 defensively against quarterbacks, top-10 against the pass with at least a one-score lead, top-10 against the pass in the fourth quarter, and top-10 against mobile quarterbacks.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders (versus Bears). His workload is slowly creeping upward, and in Week 5, he set season highs by playing 49% of the offensive snaps, rushing 14 times with a 50% share and running 10 routes. That’s plenty of opportunity to do damage against a Bears defense that surrendered 33.5 fantasy points, the most by any individual running back in a game all season, to Ashton Jeanty in Week 4. Between LB T.J. Edwards‘ (hamstring) absence in Weeks 3-4, which could extend into this week, and DE Grady Jarrett‘s underperformance, the Bears have shaped up as one of the position’s most favorable matchups.
Others to like: Kyren Williams, Rams (at Ravens); Chuba Hubbard/Rico Dowdle, Panthers (versus Cowboys); Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders (versus Tennessee Titans).
Matchup to avoid: Derrick Henry, Ravens (versus Rams). Lamar Jackson‘s (hamstring) availability has a bearing on Henry’s performance, as Henry has averaged 0.55 fantasy points per offensive snap played with Jackson on the field, but only 0.33 with him on the sidelines, in his two-year Ravens career. Regardless of Jackson’s status – and the team’s Week 7 bye makes him seem rather iffy — Henry’s matchup against the Rams is one of his toughest, making this one of the rare weeks where he’s a mid-to-low fantasy RB2. Yes, Christian McCaffrey just dropped 27.9 fantasy points on this defense, but the Rams also held Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor to a combined 24.1 points in Weeks 3-4.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers (versus Cowboys). This might well be a breakthrough week for the rookie wide receiver, who has encouraging usage patterns thus far. Both McMillan’s 25.9% target share and five red zone targets rank 13th at the position, his 0.54 routes run per offensive snap ranks 14th, and his 0.25 targets per route rate ranks 23rd. He’s also Bryce Young’s top deep threat, with a team-leading seven targets thrown at least 20 yards downfield, which plays especially well to the matchup. The Cowboys have surrendered 515 yards receiving to wide receivers on throws at least that deep, easily the league’s most, as well as five touchdowns.
Others to like: Davante Adams, Rams (at Ravens); Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs (versus Detroit Lions); DJ Moore, Bears (at Commanders).
Matchup to avoid: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (versus Chargers). He played a more prominent role in Tyreek Hill‘s absence in Week 5, absorbing a 26% target share while scoring a season-high 23.0 fantasy points, but his emergence as the Dolphins’ No. 1 receiver could mean more defenses keying on him in the coming weeks. The Chargers have been one of the best defenses against wide receivers, in large part due to the performance of CB Donte Jackson, who has allowed only 15.6 fantasy points on 138 coverage snaps as the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats. Opposing WR1s have averaged only 16.9 points on 10.2 targets against this defense.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Jake Tonges, San Francisco 49ers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). He has touchdowns in back-to-back games, and his 11 targets in Week 5 tied for the team lead. Now Tonges gets another soft matchup, against a Buccaneers defense that has already seen three different sub-20%-started tight ends score 12 or more fantasy points against them (Kyle Pitts Sr., Dallas Goedert and AJ Barner). That Tonges saw three red-zone targets in Week 5 makes him an especially attractive fill-in for this week, as the Buccaneers have already surrendered four touchdowns to tight ends within the red zone, tied for the league’s most.
Matchup to avoid: Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons (versus Buffalo Bills). Speaking of Pitts, he’s off to a better-than-expected start (11.6 fantasy points per game, 10th among TEs), but this isn’t a week to trust a big score is coming. The Bills have limited Mark Andrews, Juwan Johnson and Hunter Henry, the three most prominent tight ends they have faced thus far, to a combined 13.9 points on eight targets.
