The time has come for Dustin Poirier to lay down his gloves, but not before one more scrap in his home state of Louisiana with his longtime rival, BMF titleholder Max Holloway. The two fighters first met at featherweight in Holloway’s UFC debut in 2012. Poirier’s welcome gift was a triangle armbar that made Holloway tap out 3:23 into the first round.
By the time Poirier and Holloway met again in 2019, they had grown into two of the most popular fighters on the roster. Holloway, then-featherweight champion, moved up to face Poirier for the interim lightweight belt. The Lafayette, Louisiana, native got the better of the Hawaiian champion again, this time via unanimous decision.
The final fight in their history-making trilogy on Saturday at UFC 318 in New Orleans (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV; prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN2 and ESPN+) will have another belt at stake, the BMF title Holloway won via an iconic last-second knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 last year.
Across the world in Cape Town, South Africa, the PFL Champions Series will also be in action on Saturday (2 p.m. ET on ESPN+). Undefeated middleweight champion Johnny Eblen, ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, will meet Costello van Steenis in the main event. Women’s flyweight champion Dakota Ditcheva, No. 10 in ESPN pound-for-pound rankings, will also be back in action for the first time this year against former Bellator fighter Sumiko Inaba.
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their Poirier vs. Holloway predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on both fight cards.
Lightweight main event
We can talk about X’s and O’s all we want, but for some reason, Dustin Poirier has yet to struggle with Max Holloway. There’s just a thing in sports sometimes where one guy has another’s number, and I think that’s the case here. Dustin is just a more impactful striker. Max is great, but I don’t think he has enough power to consistently stand with these lightweights. — Anthony Smith
It’s a home game for Dustin, and I think he has the ability to counterpunch Max. That’s what gave Holloway problems in his last fight with Poirier, and I’m not sure Holloway has picked up on that and made the necessary adjustments. It’s going to be a close fight, though. Competitive fight. I just think Dustin wins more rounds. — Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of Thursday. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
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Why Dana White is amped up for Holloway vs. Poirier 3
UFC President Dana White tells Pat McAfee why he’s excited about UFC 318, especially the main event between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier.
Parker: Over 4.5 rounds. Just like the first two fights between Poirier and Holloway, I expect this one to be exciting. With two fighters of this caliber who have some of the best durability in the sport, it would be shocking if this fight wasn’t competitive from bell to bell. The biggest question could be how Holloway responds to the first knockout loss of his career, the last time out against Ilia Topuria. Poirier doesn’t carry the same power. He is more the type to wear you down and finish you late in the fight, so the over 4.5 rounds feels like the play here. If you want better odds, take the fight to go the distance.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the UFC card
Middleweight: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
Kopylov to win (-240). Costa had a lot of success earlier in his career knocking out opponents and imposing his will with his athleticism, but it’s been a while since he has had a dominant win over anyone of significance. Enter Kopylov. He is the betting favorite, and I am shocked the number isn’t higher. Kopylov is the better striker and has worked hard of late to improve his takedown defense. Unless Costa turns into Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and becomes an incredible wrestler with unlimited cardio, look for Kopylov to put on a striking clinic and get the win here. If you don’t like the -240 odds, take Kopylov to win by decision.
Featherweight: Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull
Ige to win (-220). Coming off a knockout win, Ige will be looking to add Pitbull to his résumé and continue to climb the ranks of the featherweight division. Ige has an endless gas tank, fight-ending power and a high fight IQ, which should pay off well for him against a seasoned MMA veteran. Pitbull didn’t look like himself in his UFC debut, a decision loss to Yair Rodriguez in April, but he was one of Bellator MMA’s best fighters for a long time. Expect a competitive fight here. Both guys tend to start slowly, but Ige’s volume and pace will increase as the fight goes on and get him the win. Ige opened as a -175 favorite and has climbed to -220. If those odds continue to rise, take Ige to win and the over 1.5 rounds.
Middleweight: Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen
Allen to win (-210). Allen and Vettori have had run-ins outside the cage in the past, and now they will get to settle their differences in the Octagon. Allen is a -210 favorite, and I agree with the oddsmakers. As good as Vettori, a nine-year UFC veteran, once was, he has become a low-volume striker with no takedown attempts. But he still holds onto his durability. Allen has all the skills to be a champion but tends to fall short right before a title is in sight. He is getting Vettori at the right time in his career, and I expect Allen to be the better fighter everywhere and anywhere the fight goes. When Allen is aggressive, he is at his best. Expect him to show out in his home state of Louisiana.
Parker’s best bets for PFL Cape Town
Middleweight: Johnny Eblen vs. Costello van Steenis
Eblen to win; over 2.5. rounds. In the main event, Eblen will look to defend his middleweight championship against lethal striker van Steenis. Look for Eblen, a heavy favorite, to get this fight to the ground early and keep a menacing pace to tire out van Steenis and lessen his striking power as the fight goes on. Either put Eblen as the anchor to your parlay or take him to win and the over 2.5 rounds. He should win rounds and take this fight into deep waters.
Women’s flyweight: Dakota Ditcheva vs. Sumiko Inaba
Ditcheva to win by TKO/KO. Inaba will be looking to derail the hype train of Ditcheva, but I just don’t see that happening. Ditcheva has world-class striking and fight-ending power that continues to get better each time she hits the PFL SmartCage. The only way to bet this fight is to take Ditcheva by TKO/KO. For the best odds possible, take her to finish it in Round 1.
Heavyweight: Corey Anderson vs. Denis Goltsov
Anderson to win. In a fight that can dictate who competes for the PFL heavyweight title later in the year, former Bellator light heavyweight champion Anderson takes on last season’s PFL heavyweight champion Golstov. The outcome of this fight is going to depend on whether Anderson can outwrestle his opponent early and survive Round 1. On the feet, I would lean toward Golstov, but the wrestling and cardio departments belong to Anderson. I am going to take a flier on the underdog, Anderson, because Golstov has a questionable gas tank and was too easily taken down by Oleg Popov in his last fight.
