With 15 games remaining in the IPL 2025 league stage, Chennai Super Kings, Rajasthan Royals and Sunrisers Hyderabad are already out of contention for the playoffs.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Punjab Kings and Gujarat Titans are almost sure to make the knock-out stage and Mumbai Indians are also strong contenders, but Delhi Capitals still have a fair chance and Lucknow Super Giants and Kolkata Knight Riders slim chances.
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There remain 32,768 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the seven remaining in the race.
Who’s that IPL player?
We look at the probabilities:
| Team | Best case scenario | Worst case scenario | Chances (%) of making or tying for top 4 | Chances (%) of making or tying for top 2 |
| RCB | Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and GT lose at least one | End up 6th. Can happen if they lose all their remaining games | 97.9 | 78.6 |
| GT | Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win their remaining games and RCB lose one or more | Finish 7th by losing all remaining games | 87.2 | 54.5 |
| PBKS | Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and both RCB and GT lose at least one | Finish 7th by losing all remaining games | 90.1 | 46.0 |
| MI | Sole topper with 20 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose two each and PBKS lose one | Finish 7th by losing all remaining games | 75.0 | 36.1 |
| DC | Sole topper with 20 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose two each and PBKS and MI lose one each | Finish 8th by losing all the remaining games | 55.1 | 15.2 |
| KKR | Finish tied for the top spot with PBKS. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose two each, PBKS and MI lose one each | Finish joint 8th by losing all the remaining games | 14.0 | 1.1 |
| LSG | Finish tied 2nd on 16 pts with RCB and either DC or GT. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB lose all of theirs, and DC lose one or GT lose two | Finish 8th by losing all the remaining games | 7.9 | 0.1 |
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How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 32,768 possible combinations of results remaining with 15 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, RCB finish in the top four in 32,072 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 97.9% chance. In 25,768 of them they end up first or second, singly or jointly, translating to a 78.6% chance.
