What’s at stake for WNBA playoffs in regular-season finales?

The final day of the 2024 WNBA regular season is here, and one playoff spot remains up for grabs as all 12 teams head into Thursday’s finales. The No. 1 seed New York Liberty were the first to clinch a playoff berth, on Aug. 17. But they have had to wait a month to find out who they will face in the best-of-three first round, which begins Sunday on the home courts of the top four seeds.

The Atlanta Dream (14-25), Chicago Sky (13-26) and Washington Mystics (13-26) are all vying for the last playoff berth. The Dream travel to face the Liberty (7 p.m. ET, NBA TV), while the Sky are on the road at the Connecticut Sun (7 p.m. ET). Atlanta is 0-3 against New York this season, and Chicago is 0-3 vs. the Sun. Washington will host the Indiana Fever (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video); the Mystics are 1-2 against the Fever.

Though the Liberty and the No. 6 Fever have their playoff seeds set, the Sun’s seed isn’t locked in yet. They start the day in third, but a loss Thursday combined with a Las Vegas Aces victory over the Dallas Wings (10 p.m. ET) would move up the Aces to the No. 3 seed and drop the Sun to No. 4.

The Seattle Storm‘s No. 5 seed is set heading into Thursday’s road game (10 p.m. ET) at No. 7 seed Phoenix Mercury. So while there is nothing on the line in the Storm-Mercury game, it will nonetheless draw a lot of attention as it could be the final home game for Phoenix legend Diana Taurasi. At 42, she is playing her 20th WNBA season and hasn’t said whether it will be her last.

Thursday’s matchup between the Minnesota Lynx, who are the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, and the last-place Los Angeles Sparks (8 p.m. ET) also has no impact on the postseason. The Sparks will miss the playoffs for the fourth year in a row.

So while some teams will focus more on resting their stars for all that’s ahead, others will have a lot on the line Thursday. Here’s a look at what to watch for as the regular season concludes.

Which team will clinch the final playoff spot?

It has felt for some tome as if the eighth and final playoff spot wouldn’t be punched until the last day of the regular season. That’s indeed how things played out, although Atlanta is in the driver’s seat: If the Dreams, they are in.

Of course, going up against top-seeded New York is no easy task. But even if the Dream lose, they could still snag the final spot in two other scenarios: if Washington and Chicago also lose, or if Washington wins and Chicago loses.

What about the Mystics and Sky? The only situation where Washington makes it into the postseason is if it wins, as does Chicago, but Atlanta loses.

For the Sky — who are dealing with an array of injuries — they need to win and for Atlanta and Washington to lose to earn the final berth. — Philippou

How will the Nos. 3-4 seeds shake out?

Though No. 5 Seattle and No. 6 Indiana don’t have anything on the line to play for Thursday, they will be watching to see how the Chicago-Connecticut game goes. The outcome of that could make Las Vegas-Dallas must-see-TV for Storm and Fever fans.

If the Sun win, they will be the No. 3 seed and face Indiana. The Sky have been in a free fall since the Olympic break ended, going 3-12, and it’s hard to see the Sun losing this one. But …

If the Sun fall and Las Vegas beats a Wings team that will finish next to last, then we will have an Aces-Fever first-round series. That would feature the huge favorites for MVP (Aces’ A’ja Wilson) and Rookie of the Year (Fever’s Caitlin Clark).

The Fever went 0-4 against the Aces this season, and 1-3 against the Sun. Both will be extremely tough opponents for an Indiana team appearing in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. But Indiana at least has had some success against the Sun.

The Storm went 1-3 against the Aces and 2-1 against the Sun. Seattle is coming off an 85-72 loss at home to Las Vegas on Tuesday, which ended a four-game winning streak. — Voepel

What are the lottery implications to Thursday’s results?

Which teams will join Los Angeles and Dallas, which were eliminated from playoff contention in early September, in the lottery? The Dream previously traded their 2025 first-round draft pick to acquire Allisha Gray, so if Atlanta misses the playoffs, it won’t be in the lottery. That draft pick ultimately ended up in the hands of the Mystics, who probably wouldn’t mind being treated to two lottery picks (its own and Atlanta’s), or to find itself in the lottery even if they make the playoffs.

Dallas is also rooting for Chicago to miss the postseason. If that happens, then the Wings have a stronger chance of landing the No. 1 pick via its combined own odds plus Chicago’s, thanks to the pick swap that was part of the 2023 Marina Mabrey trade. — Philippou

How are teams planning to play their last game?

With relatively little on the line for teams already in the playoffs, teams will have to weigh the importance of building positive momentum heading into the postseason with resting key players.

Wednesday night’s injury reports heading into Thursday indicate some teams are gravitating toward the latter. The Lynx already ruled out Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride due to rest. Vegas’ quartet of Wilson, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray are all listed as doubtful for the same reason; notably, the Aces will know by their 10 p.m. ET tip whether they are locked into the 4-seed, as Connecticut’s game starts three hours earlier.

The Storm might still be without Jewell Loyd (questionable, knee), while Ezi Magbegor is out because of a concussion (both players last appeared Sept. 13). Kahleah Copper, who hasn’t played since Sept. 7, was listed as questionable for the Mercury because of a back issue.

The three teams competing for the final playoff spot won’t be at full strength either, but no team is as depleted as Chicago, which in addition to recently losing Angel Reese (wrist) for the year will also be without Diamond DeShields (ankle) and potentially Kamilla Cardoso (doubtful, shoulder) and Chennedy Carter (questionable, foot). — Philippou

Your drive, dreams, and dominance created joy for all of us.

Our last regular season home game is tomorrow. If this is it … don’t miss seeing the Greatest of All-Time.
🎟 https://t.co/Rb3988XXlX pic.twitter.com/BvzMu8zLLL

— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) September 18, 2024

Is this goodbye to the GOAT in Phoenix?

Taurasi said after Tuesday’s victory in Los Angeles that she would wait to make a retirement decision until after this season ended. At 42, she has done everything there is to do in basketball, multiple times. Yet she’s still effective: Taurasi is averaging 15.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists. Those stats aren’t retirement numbers.

Still, with the knowledge of what it takes in the offseason to be able to perform at the level she wants in the WNBA, Taurasi has to weigh whether she wants to keep going.

That said, she still has plenty of enthusiasm for this Mercury team, which will face Minnesota in the first round. Tuesday, Taurasi complimented first-year Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts for changing “the whole mindset of this franchise” and talked about how well the team gets along even through its ups and downs.

“We’re still trying to find a rhythm … to find things that work for us,” Taurasi said. “There’s still an opportunity to get better every single night. It’s still a big moment. Whenever you hit the court, the ultimate goal is to win.” — Voepel