Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
With most effective 3 weeks and 48 video games extra within the 2023 NFL regular season, there are 26 groups nonetheless mathematically alive for the playoffs. Sure, Giants — even you.
The choice of diversifications of the ones 48 video games is impossibly massive, so nowadays we’re going to concentrate on one situation: chalk. Technically, we’re on the lookout for a selected roughly chalk — the modal result of each and every convention. In alternative phrases, after we simulate the remainder of the season 10,000 occasions the usage of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which aggregate of 7 seeds is essentially the most usual in each and every convention?
Those seed mixtures are nonetheless now not in particular most probably given all of the hesitation. There’s a 5% prospect that the NFC playoff garden is precisely what you spot underneath and just a 1% prospect the AFC garden is what’s described right here. However the ones are the in all probability exact results for each and every convention. There have been precisely two simulations wherein each meetings accident their modal result, and we now have selected one to show how the remainder of the season may just play games out.
We did a indistinguishable workout a occasion in the past wherein we simulated the final two weeks of the 2022 season. Our simulation appropriately known all seven AFC groups and were given seed Nos. 3-7 right kind, hour additionally getting six of the seven NFC groups and their seeds proper.
So let’s dive into simulation Incorrect. 5,639 for the extra 2023 video games.
Soar to:
Rankings: Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18
Ultimate standings: AFC | NFC
Projected Generation 16 rankings
NO-LAR: Saints 30, Rams 28
CIN-PIT: Steelers 24, Bengals 23
BUF-LAC: Expenses 33, Chargers 27
IND-ATL: Colts 17, Falcons 16
SEA-TEN: Titans 20, Seahawks 13
DET-MIN: Lions 16, Vikings 14
WSH-NYJ: Commanders 27, Jets 17
GB-CAR: Packers 30, Panthers 9
CLE-HOU: Texans 33, Browns 10
JAX-TB: Jaguars 28, Buccaneers 11
ARI-CHI: Bears 17, Cardinals 9
DAL-MIA: Cowboys 31, Dolphins 26
NE-DEN: Broncos 23, Patriots 13
LV-KC: Chiefs 27, Raiders 3
NYG-PHI: Eagles 40, Giants 14
BAL-SF: 49ers 31, Ravens 20
Generation 16 tightened many key races. The Ravens misplaced to the 49ers hour the Chiefs received, upping the temperature of the Incorrect. 1-seed race within the AFC. The Cowboys beat the Dolphins, hour the Expenses beat the Chargers, expanding the force on Miami with the Expenses bearing ill within the AFC East (and with a tournament between the 2 nonetheless to return).
The Eagles held handover with a win within the first of 3 simple video games to complete their time table, however the Cowboys’ victory stored the warmth on Philadelphia, too. Within the NFC South, the Saints took a tenuous manage.
On the base of the AFC playoff image, the Colts and Texans moved their postseason possibilities to more or less a two-in-three shot via dispatching the Falcons and Browns, respectively. For its section, Cleveland remained in a robust place regardless of the loss.
Within the NFC wild-card race, it used to be a just right occasion for Inexperienced Bay, because the Packers received hour the Vikings, Seahawks and Rams all misplaced.
Projected Generation 17 rankings
NYJ-CLE: Browns 31, Jets 30
DET-DAL: Cowboys 33, Lions 28
NE-BUF: Expenses 35, Patriots 21
ATL-CHI: Bears 24, Falcons 16
LV-IND: Colts 34, Raiders 20
LAR-NYG: Rams 25, Giants 6
ARI-PHI: Eagles 31, Cardinals 22
NO-TB: Buccaneers 37, Saints 17
SF-WSH: 49ers 31, Commanders 13
CAR-JAX: Jaguars 48, Panthers 24
MIA-BAL: Dolphins 28, Ravens 24
TEN-HOU: Texans 24, Titans 17
PIT-SEA: Seahawks 20, Steelers 10
LAC-DEN: Broncos 28, Chargers 24
CIN-KC: Chiefs 19, Bengals 9
GB-MIN: Packers 24, Vikings 21
The lead of the AFC was even murkier nearest the Dolphins felled the Ravens — giving Baltimore its 2d loss in as many weeks — and the Chiefs beat Jake Browning and the Bengals. That attach the 3 groups on the lead with 11-5 data. The Browns, Expenses, Broncos, Texans and Colts — possible AFC wild-card groups — all received.
The 49ers’ dominance within the NFC endured, and the NFC East race endured to stick sizzling with each the Eagles and Cowboys caring for trade, together with a fat Dallas win over the Lions.
Within the NFC wild-card race, the Packers’ overdue surge endured with a Untouched Hour’s Eve evening victory over the division-rival Vikings — whose personal playoff hopes had been dashed at this level — even though the Rams and Seahawks received, too. The Bucs beat the Saints to exit forward within the NFC South.
Projected Generation 18 rankings
CLE-CIN: Browns 23, Bengals 16
MIN-DET: Lions 19, Vikings 16
CHI-GB: Bears 38, Packers 10
JAX-TEN: Jaguars 31, Titans 28
HOU-IND: Colts 34, Texans 24
DEN-LV: Raiders 25, Broncos 3
BUF-MIA: Expenses 27, Dolphins 24
NYJ-NE: Jets 23, Patriots 6
ATL-NO: Falcons 21, Saints 18
PHI-NYG: Eagles 13, Giants 9
SEA-ARI: Cardinals 34, Seahawks 24
KC-LAC: Chargers 29, Chiefs 19
LAR-SF: Rams 24, 49ers 17
DAL-WSH: Cowboys 30, Commanders 23
TB-CAR: Panthers 19, Buccaneers 14
PIT-BAL: Ravens 21, Steelers 9
The Chiefs stumbled and by some means misplaced to the Chargers, the Dolphins got here up cut in a good duel in opposition to the Expenses, and the Ravens took benefit via beating the Steelers and seizing the AFC’s Incorrect. 1 seed.
The ache used to be doubled for Miami, because the Expenses’ victory gave Buffalo the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami for the department. That’s proper, the Expenses are AFC East champs. And because of a logjam of 11-win groups, the Dolphins dropped all of the strategy to the Incorrect. 7 seed within the AFC playoffs.
Within the NFC, the Bucs limped into an NFC South identify with a loss (a suitable end for that department), and the Packers had been blown out via the Bears to finish their playoff hopes. That allowed the Rams (9-8) and Seahawks (8-9) to each succeed in the postseason.
Projecting how the AFC performs out
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)
4. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
5. Cleveland Browns (11-6)
6. Indianapolis Colts (11-6)
7. Miami Dolphins (11-6)
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8. Houston Texans (10-7)
9. Denver Broncos (9-8)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (8-9)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)
13. Los Angeles Chargers (6-11)
14. New York Jets (6-11)
15. Tennessee Titans (6-11)
16. New England Patriots (3-14)
Ravens nab the Incorrect. 1 seed: Baltimore by no means makes it simple. Nearest dropping video games in Weeks 16 and 17, it seemed like the Ravens had been at the verge of squandering the lead seed. However finally it used to be the Chiefs and Dolphins who stumbled within the ultimate occasion — the Chiefs’ disillusioned loss to the Chargers used to be in particular surprising — and Baltimore used to be in a position to whip benefit, beating Pittsburgh to earn a bye and homefield benefit.
It’s a just right factor for the Ravens that they did. Had they blown that Generation 18 duel they wouldn’t have simply misplaced the Incorrect. 1 seed — they’d have misplaced the department to the Browns, too!
Expenses thieve the AFC East, Dolphins fall to the Incorrect. 7 seed: Let’s give an explanation for a statistical irregularity taking place right here. Take into accout after we stated we’re on the lookout for essentially the most usual, exact eager of 7 seeds in a convention?
As of this writing, the Dolphins are obviously liked to win the department, with a 69% shot in comparison to the Expenses’ 31%. But if Miami wins the department its projections are break nice-looking calmly between the primary, 2d and 3rd seeds (with a modest prospect at Incorrect. 4). When Buffalo wins the department, it’s in all probability to finally end up because the fourth seed. That, plus some randomness, intended that essentially the most usual eager of seeds integrated the Expenses profitable the AFC East.
Now again to simulation Incorrect. 5,639. What came about right here isn’t far-fetched. Buffalo beat the Chargers and Patriots, and the Dolphins misplaced to the 49ers and beat the Ravens to arrange a tournament for the department in Generation 18. Buffalo had already overwhelmed Miami as soon as, so it had the head-to-head tiebreaker if it received — and it did.
Colts beat the Texans to take hold of a wild-card spot: With the Browns and Dolphins locked into two wild-card spots, there used to be one playoff spot extra. The Bengals and Broncos had taken themselves out of the race via Generation 18, hour the Colts and Texans squared off to look who may just get to 11 wins and take hold of the playoff berth. On this simulation, Gardner Minshew and the Colts beat out C.J. Stroud and Houston, profitable 34-24 and incomes Indianapolis the Incorrect. 6 seed.
Indianapolis if truth be told attach Jacksonville with 11 wins, however the Jaguars — who beat the Colts two times this season — received the AFC South by the use of tiebreaker.
Projecting how the NFC performs out
1. San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
3. Detroit Lions (12-5)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
5. Dallas Cowboys (13-4)
6. Los Angeles Rams (9-8)
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-9)
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8. Green Bay Packers (8-9)
9. New Orleans Saints (8-9)
10. Chicago Bears (8-9)
11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
12. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
13. New York Giants (5-12)
14. Washington Commanders (5-12)
15. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
16. Carolina Panthers (3-14)
49ers lock up the Incorrect. 1 seed in Generation 17: Nearest beating the Ravens and Commanders, the 49ers clinched the Incorrect. 1 seed within the NFC, letting them remainder their starters in a Generation 18 loss to the Rams. That loss ended a nine-game profitable streak for the 49ers, which they fortunately permitted in a industry to get wholesome, earn a bye and keep in Northern California till the Tremendous Bowl.
Eagles stock on within the NFC East: The Cowboys wanted the Eagles to falter. They by no means did. Nearest an upset loss to the Seahawks on “Monday Night Football” in Generation 15, Philadelphia were given its business in combination — no less than enough quantity to overcome its cupcake time table ill the stretch. Philly beat the Giants two times and the Cardinals to complete 13-4, stock directly to the NFC East and accumulation the Cowboys in a wild-card spot.
Bucs win the lackluster NFC South with a sub-.500 report: The NFC South used to be at all times destined for an 8-9 champion. For the second one directly occasion it became out to be the Bucs, who scored a key victory over the Saints in Generation 17 ahead of dropping in Generation 18 — however received the department since the Saints misplaced to the Falcons. Becoming.
The Bucs had been the longest shot to win the NFC South heading into the season (8.5%), according to ESPN’s FPI, and overcame the ones odds.
Rams, Seahawks each and every hold wild-card berths: Anyone needed to whip the ultimate two NFC wild-card spots, and no person within the NFC North stood up. Minnesota fell aside ill the stretch, dropping 3 directly, and the Packers couldn’t triumph over their penniless begin to get again into the playoffs. In lieu, the Rams had been in a position to win two in their ultimate 3 contests, and the Seahawks had been in a position to stumble right into a playoff spot at 8-9, beating out the Saints, Packers and Bears in a four-way secured.
Bears earn the Incorrect. 1 total select: Chicago’s fortune has became round. By way of its trade with the Panthers ultimate offseason, the Bears earned the Incorrect. 1 total select within the 2024 draft and can have the fitting to make a choice quarterbacks Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, will have to they make a selection. They’re now not the one fan bottom celebrating its draft situation: The Patriots earned the Incorrect. 2 select and seem in order to draft a quarterback, as smartly. The Cardinals rounded out the lead 3.
What to anticipate within the playoffs
Projected wild-card matchups:
Dolphins (7) at Chiefs (2)
Colts (6) at Jaguars (3)
Browns (5) at Expenses (4)
Seahawks (7) at Eagles (2)
Rams (6) at Lions (3)
Cowboys (5) at Buccaneers (4)
Who is going all of the means? Remember the fact that this can be a unmarried simulation. However in fact we wish to know who wins the Tremendous Bowl!
The most important wild-card spherical disillusioned used to be the Bucs knocking out the Cowboys, giving Dallas a shocking early go. Within the divisional spherical, each Incorrect. 1 seeds received — the Ravens beat the Expenses, and the 49ers dispatched the Bucs. However Baltimore’s run ended within the AFC Championship Sport, when the Chiefs received in a 39-26 barnburner. The 49ers narrowly defeated the Lions 20-17 within the NFC identify tournament.
The 49ers had been liked within the Tremendous Bowl however couldn’t end the activity, because the Chiefs ended up as miracle repeat champions with a 37-21 victory.
Be aware: ESPN’s Hank Gargiulo contributed to this tale.
