NFL Family, ESPN
The Week 13 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with superb matchups, and now we have you lined with what you want to understand heading into the weekend. Our NFL Family newshounds deliver us the largest keys to each match and a daring prediction for every matchup.
Moreover, ESPN Stats & Knowledge supplies a large stat to understand and a betting nugget for every match, and our Football Power Index (FPI) is going throughout the numbers with a match projection. Analytics essayist Seth Walder selections out every matchup’s largest X issue, and myth analyst Eric Moody fingers out useful fantasy football intel. In any case, Walder and Moody give us ultimate rating picks for each match. The entirety you need to understand is right here in a single spot to aid you get in a position for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the whole Pace 13 slate, together with a rematch of final 12 months’s NFC Championship Recreation between the 49ers and Eagles and a showdown of 2 awe playoff contenders within the Broncos and Texans. All of it culminates with a Monday Night time Soccer matchup between the Bengals and the Jaguars on ESPN. (Recreation occasions are Sunday until in a different way famous.)
Soar to a matchup:
DEN-HOU | IND-TEN | LAC-NE
DET-NO | ATL-NYJ | ARI-PIT
MIA-WSH | CAR-TB | CLE-LAR
SF-PHI | KC-GB | CIN-JAX
Thursday: DAL 41, SEA 35
Bye: BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG, BAL
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: HOU -3.5 (47.5)
Storyline to look at: From Pace 9-12, the Broncos have held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 31.9 (fourth-lowest) and are retaining opposing offenses to 18.0 issues in line with match (Thirteenth-lowest). However Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has a QBR of 68.3 (fifth-best) all the way through that very same span. This matchup would be the accident of 1 energy vs. some other. — DJ Bien-Aime
Daring prediction: The Broncos will do what most effective 3 alternative groups have finished up to now this season — drive Stroud into a couple of giveover. Stroud has most effective 3 video games — wins over Arizona and Cincinnati to advance with a loss to Indianapolis in his moment profession get started — when he has became the ball over greater than as soon as. The Broncos have 16 takeaways all the way through their wave five-game successful streak, with 15 of the ones happening within the while 4 video games (their maximum in a four-game span since 1989). Their 22 takeaways at the season govern the league. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to understand: Broncos QB Russell Wilson has 5 directly begins with a passing landing and disagree interceptions, the longest energetic streak within the NFL and third-longest streak of his profession in the back of a six-game streak in 2020 and a seven-game run in 2019. Wilson has an NFL-best 20-4 touchdown-interception ratio this season.
1:01
McAfee: Wilson, Payton deserve credit score for Broncos’ go back to mode
Pat McAfee breaks unwell the entirety he’s preferred from the Broncos all the way through their successful streak.
Matchup X issue: Texans left secure Juice Scruggs. When Tytus Howard suffered a knee shock final time Scruggs changed him, and that appears like a long-term journey now that Howard is out for the season. The second one-round rookie publish a powerful 96% go prevent win price in that match however is clearly unproven. Protective Stroud might be vital, each on Sunday and in the future. — Walder
What to understand for myth: It will be sensible for myth managers to mood their expectancies for Texans receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins in opposition to the Broncos. Regardless of a coarse get started, Denver’s protection has been taking part in neatly in recent years. All through the Broncos’ contemporary four-game stretch, opposing quarterbacks, together with the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, have controlled to moderate most effective 12.0 myth issues in line with match. That can impact Houston’s receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Texans are 0-7 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) of their while seven video games as favorites, together with 0-4 ATS this season. Read more.
Moody’s select: Texans 31, Broncos 28
Walder’s select: Texans 23, Broncos 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 54.4% (via a median of one.5 issues)
Matchup must-reads: How Wilson helped spark Broncos’ five-game win streak … Texans believe Stroud gives them chance to win in every game … Howard to miss remainder of season with knee injury
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: IND -1 (42.5)
Storyline to look at: The Titans will glance to reduce the Colts’ speeding assault later permitting 193 yards at the farmland the final hour they met. Tennessee may have defensive take on Teair Tart this hour round, which is able to spice up the run protection. The Colts might be with out Jonathan Taylor (thumb), however Zack Moss‘ 672 speeding yards park him tenth within the NFL. The Titans pleasure themselves on preventing the run and may have their fingers complete in opposition to the Colts’ offense this is eleventh within the league with 1,335 yards at the farmland. — Turron Davenport
Daring prediction: Search for the Colts to surrender greater than 150 speeding yards given their contemporary struggles protecting the run. Indianapolis has struggled for the reason that lack of nostril take on Grover Stewart to a PEDs suspension. Since Stewart used to be sidelined in Pace 7, the Colts have allowed 4.9 yards in line with try, up from 3.7 in Weeks 1-6. Titans working again Derrick Henry used to be restricted to 43 yards and three.3 yards in line with elevate within the groups’ first assembly with Stewart at the garden. — Stephen Holder
Stat to understand: Henry has 1,330 speeding yards in 15 profession video games in opposition to Indianapolis, the 0.33 maximum all-time vs. the Colts, trailing Curtis Martin (1,645 in 15 video games) and Maurice Jones-Drew (1,451 in 15 video games).
1:27
The place does Jonathan Taylor’s shock impact Zack Moss’ myth worth?
Farmland Yates and Mike Clay fracture unwell the place Zack Moss ranks amongst myth working backs shifting ahead.
Matchup X issue: Moss. Even later taking a backseat position to Taylor, Moss ranks moment amongst all gamers in scurry yards over expectation (in line with NFL Then Gen Stats) this season with plus-168. The one participant he’s in the back of is some other working again who has had restricted taking part in hour, the Dolphins’ De’Von Achane. — Walder
What to understand for myth: Gardner Minshew and the Colts broad receivers have an finest matchup. Broad receivers rating the eighth-most myth issues in opposition to the Titans protection. With Taylor out because of a thumb shock, the Colts may depend extra at the passing match in opposition to a usually stout Tennessee run protection. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Titans are 4-1 outright and ATS at house this season. And the Colts are 4-1 outright and ATS at the street this season. Read more.
Moody’s select: Colts 21, Titans 17
Walder’s select: Titans 20, Colts 17
FPI prediction: IND, 57.4% (via a median of two.5 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Taylor to undergo thumb surgery … How Titans have managed to remain unbeaten in Nashville … Colts’ Shane Steichen’s aggressive nature helping Indy
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -5.5 (40.5)
Storyline to look at: Alternative quarterback Bailey Zappe is anticipated to manufacture his first get started of the season for the Patriots, changing Mac Jones, who has been pulled from 4 video games. Zappe mentioned he hopes to apply a homogeneous method to final season when he began two video games that the staff received, and he used to be in a position to “limit turnovers.” The Chargers have a plus-three surrender differential at the season (15 takeaways, 12 giveaways). — Mike Reiss
Daring prediction: The Chargers protection will drive a season-high 4 giveover. Probably the most few issues this suffering Chargers protection has finished neatly is thrashing up on green quarterbacks. Khalil Mack sacked Raiders rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell six occasions in Pace 4. They compelled 5 giveover blended in wins over the Zach Wilson-led Jets and Tyson Bagent-led Bears. With Zappe taking first-team reps at follow this time for the Patriots, the Chargers’ protection might be in for some other large efficiency. — Kris Rhim
Stat to understand: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is 0-2 in his profession in opposition to the Patriots with two landing passes, 4 interceptions and a 13 Overall QBR, his lowest QBR vs. a unmarried opponent.
Matchup X issue: Chargers run protection. It’s withered to believe the Patriots passing a ton, and disagree staff has allowed extra EPA in line with designed elevate over the while 4 weeks than the Chargers. Los Angeles must roll to a very simple win … until the protection truly shall we the staff unwell. — Walder
Accidents: Chargers | Patriots
What to understand for myth: Ezekiel Elliott has had 10 or extra touches in consecutive video games pace Rhamondre Stevenson had 20 or extra touches in consecutive video games. Because of the Patriots’ quarterback woes, Unutilized England will most probably flip to its working backs in the back of an offensive layout that ranks 7th in run prevent win price. The Chargers’ protection lets in the ninth-most myth issues in line with match to working backs. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Patriots are 2-9 ATS, the worst file within the league this season. They’re 1-7 ATS of their while 8 video games and 0-4 ATS of their while 4 video games. Another ATS loss will fit the Patriots’ maximum ATS losses in a season within the Invoice Belichick generation (6-10 ATS in 2010). Read more.
Moody’s select: Chargers 27, Patriots 20
Walder’s select: Chargers 27, Patriots 13
FPI prediction: LAC, 67.5% (via a median of 6.1 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Brandon Staley: Johnston held out due to rib injury, not play … Zappe takes reps as Belichick mum on Patriots’ QB situation
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DET -4.5 (46.5)
Storyline to look at: The Saints might be unwell their zenith 3 receivers with Michael Thomas on injured conserve (knee), Rashid Shaheed nursing a thigh shock and Chris Olave in concussion protocol. That’s unholy information for an offense that failed to attain a landing in opposition to the Falcons final time. The Saints’ have struggled within the pink zone, which is able to manufacture it tough to advance score-for-score in opposition to a Lions offense that ranks moment in yards in line with match. — Katherine Terrell
Daring prediction: Lions QB Jared Goff received’t flip the ball over this time and can throw for greater than 300 passing yards. It’s disagree invisible that the veteran has struggled not too long ago, with six giveover over the while two video games, however the Lions have positioned a fat emphasis on ball safety all the way through this time’s follow as they’re going to be taking a look to bop again later a tricky Thanksgiving loss at house to the Packers. Goff gets the offense again on course. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to understand: The Saints’ Alvin Kamara leads all working backs with 54 receptions this season. With 355 receiving yards this season, he is looking for his 7th season with a minimum of 400 receiving yards (could be secured for the fifth-most seasons via a working again in NFL historical past).
Matchup X issue: Lions broad receiver Kalif Raymond. He’s coming off a 90-receiving courtyard match and is ranked within the zenith 10 in detectable rating. Is it conceivable Raymond is having a late-season breakout into some other goal for Goff? — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Saints’ pink zone landing proportion this season is 42.5%. At house, it drops to 37.5%, the fourth-lowest within the NFL. If you’re taking into account creation a Saints participant, you must accumulation in thoughts Unutilized Orleans’ pink zone woes. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Saints are 0-4 ATS at house this season. The Lions are 4-1 ATS at the street (3-0 ATS as street favorites). Read more.
Moody’s select: Lions 28, Saints 23
Walder’s select: Lions 27, Saints 20
FPI prediction: DET, 56.1% (via a median of two.1 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Thanksgiving loss won’t put Lions in ‘panic mode’ … Carr hasn’t thrown a TD since when? Saints QB closing in on a month without a score … Saints’ Olave (concussion), Shaheed (quad) injured in loss
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: ATL -2 (33.5)
Storyline to look at: Desmond Ridder vs. Tim Boyle isn’t precisely a marquee quarterback matchup. Ridder has 18 giveover in 9 begins (5-4), pace Boyle, who started the season because the 0.33 thread, threw two interceptions in his first get started. The Jets are looking for to steer clear of their 8th directly match with fewer than two touchdowns, which will be the longest streak via any staff for the reason that 2011 Rams. — Affluent prosperous Cimini
Daring prediction: The Falcons have 3 rushers — Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson — who will scurry for greater than 50 yards, and Robinson may have greater than 100 yards from scrimmage for the 0.33 directly match. As excellent as Unutilized York is in opposition to the go, it’s ranked Refuse. 31 getting into the time in speeding yards allowed (1,543). With the Falcons having a top-five speeding offense, all 3 in their primary backs will thrive. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to understand: Ridder has had 5 pink zone giveover this season (two greater than any alternative participant); a 6th would fracture the fix for essentially the most via a Falcons participant over the final 40 seasons.
Matchup X issue: Boyle. There’s disagree reason why to consider he’s up for this activity according to his monitor file in faculty, within the professionals and final time — when he recorded a QBR of four.6. He has the prospect to end up other folks incorrect, I guess. The Jets want him to. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Falcons could be sensible to depend closely on working the soccer taking into account the energy of Unutilized York’s secondary. Atlanta ranks 0.33 in speeding makes an attempt in line with match. Over the final 3 video games, the Jets have give up the ninth-most speeding yards in line with match to fighters. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Falcons are 0-6 ATS of their final six video games as favorites (1-6 ATS this season). Read more.
Moody’s select: Falcons 25, Jets 19
Walder’s select: Falcons 19, Jets 9
FPI prediction: ATL, 56.8% (via a median of two.3 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Four changes the Falcons made coming out of their bye week … Rodgers is practicing — now what? Why he might not be back for Jets in 2023 … Amid Jets’ slump, Huff enjoying breakout season
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -5.5 (41.5)
Storyline to look at: Nearest firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers won greater than 400 yards in a match for the primary hour in 58 common season video games. However the yards didn’t translate into an explosion of issues. That might exchange this time. The Cardinals’ protection is second-to-last within the NFL in issues allowed, given up a median of 26.8 issues in line with match. Arizona’s speeding protection could also be one of the crucial worst within the league, given up a median of 174 yards at the farmland in its while 3 video games. — Brooke Pryor
Daring prediction: Cardinals working again James Conner will run for 125 yards. This might be a knock-down, drag-out battle between Arizona’s speeding offense — which is ranked tenth within the league in yards in line with match and 0.33 in yards in line with elevate — and the Steelers’ speeding protection, which hasn’t allowed greater than 116 yards in its final 5 video games, together with back-to-back video games of retaining its fighters beneath 100 yards. Conner might be in a position to fracture out in his go back to Pittsburgh, the place he performed his faculty ball and the primary 4 years of his NFL profession. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to understand: Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt has 4 consecutive video games with one complete sack, secured for the second one longest streak of his profession in the back of a six-game streak in 2019 and the second-longest energetic streak within the NFL in the back of Miami’s Jaelan Phillips (5 video games).
Matchup X issue: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray‘s accuracy. His off-target price (19%) is at a career-high since his go back this season. A part of this is pushed via him throwing the ball farther downfield on moderate than ever sooner than, however even accounting for that his accuracy numbers are unwell. His adjusted crowning glory proportion and crowning glory proportion over expectation (in line with NFL Then Gen Stats) also are at career-lows. — Walder
Accidents: Cardinals | Steelers
What to understand for myth: Murray has scored 17 or extra myth issues and scored a speeding landing in 3 consecutive video games later lacking the primary 9 video games with a knee shock. The Steelers protection has give up the ninth-most passing yards in line with match. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in opposition to groups these days with dropping data this season. Read more.
Moody’s select: Steelers 23, Cardinals 14
Walder’s select: Cardinals 23, Steelers 19
FPI prediction: PIT, 71.7% (via a median of seven.7 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Mental recovery from ACL injury a milestone for Cardinals’ Murray … Freiermuth highlights promising direction for Steelers offense … Murray not discouraged by growing pains in new Cardinals offense … Johnson apologizes for lack of effort vs. Bengals
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: MIA -9.5 (49.5)
Storyline to look at: Washington tutor Ron Rivera will break in because the defensive playcaller for the fired Jack Del Rio; it’ll be Rivera’s first hour calling defensive alerts since 2018, when he used to be Carolina’s head tutor. It received’t be simple Sunday. Miami leads the NFL with 42 offensive touchdowns pace Washington has allowed the second-most with 35. Additionally, Miami is moment with 57 performs of 20 yards or extra, and Washington has allowed essentially the most with 59. — John Keim
Daring prediction: Of their first match since LB Jaelan Phillips suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, the Dolphins will file a minimum of six sacks in opposition to a Commanders’ offensive layout that has allowed the second-most sacks within the NFL (55). Bradley Chubb will step up and keep 3 himself, because the league’s third-ranked go scurry continues its sizzling streak. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to understand: The Dolphins are looking for their 7th 30-point match this season (could be their maximum since 8 in 1985). They’ve scored 44 general touchdowns this season (4 greater than any alternative staff), later scoring 46 all of final season (9th within the NFL).
1:27
Why Stephen A. isn’t purchasing Tyreek Hill’s comparability to Chiefs
Stephen A. Smith provides his ideas on Tyreek Hill announcing the 2023 Dolphins are higher than the 2019 Chiefs.
Matchup X issue: Dolphins defensive again Jalen Ramsey. With him at the garden this season, the Dolphins have allowed minus-0.16 EPA in line with dropback (similar to second-best within the NFL) in comparison to minus-0.02 with out him (nonetheless excellent, however now not elite). They haven’t confronted a killer row of offenses since his go back, however the staff’s advanced defensive efficiency has coincided with him being at the garden. — Walder
Accidents: Dolphins | Commanders
What to understand for myth: In his first 13 profession video games, the Commanders’ Sam Howell turned into most effective the 6th quarterback in league historical past to surpass 3,500 passing yards. A winnable matchup in opposition to Dolphins slot cornerback Kader Kohou must govern to a accumulation of goals for Washington receiver Curtis Samuel. This season, Samuel has had 4 video games with seven or extra goals and scored 18 or extra myth issues in 3 of them. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Commanders are 3-0-1 ATS and 2-2 outright as house underdogs of a minimum of 7.5 issues beneath Rivera. Read more.
Moody’s select: Dolphins 30, Commanders 17
Walder’s select: Dolphins 24, Commanders 21
FPI prediction: MIA, 80.4% (via a median of eleven.4 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Dolphins to sign veteran DE Pierre-Paul … Commanders fire DC Del Rio after rout vs. Cowboys … Ron Rivera not worried about job status
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: TB -5 (36.5)
Storyline to look at: At 4-7 and having dropped six out of the final seven video games, the Bucs are miraculously only one match out of first park within the NFC South pace the 1-10 Panthers are hoping a training exchange can provoke the staff. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, who spent seven video games with the Panthers final season, without a doubt expects it. “Having been in that spot before, everybody rallies around it, honestly. It’s one of those things that brings people together,” mentioned Mayfield, who is anticipated to play games in spite of escape final time’s match in brief with an ankle shock. — Jenna Laine
Daring prediction: Rookie quarterback Bryce Young will go for a career-high 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in opposition to the NFL’s Thirty first-ranked go protection (268.7 yards allowed in line with match) to present Chris Tabor a win in his debut as Carolina’s meantime tutor. It’s daring as a result of Younger hasn’t crowned 200 yards passing within the final 4 video games, and his profession towering is 247 in opposition to Detroit, however Tabor goes to show him release. — David Newton
Stat to understand: Younger has been sacked a minimum of 4 occasions in seven of his 11 video games this season (essentially the most via a rookie since Blake Bortles had 9 in 2014). The Panthers have allowed 43 sacks this season and are on date for 66, which will be the second-most in franchise historical past (69 in 2000).
Matchup X issue: Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns. It hasn’t translated to a abundance sack general (6.0), however Burns has been disruptive this season, with a 27% go scurry win price at edge — which most effective trails Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. A large defensive match from Burns may advance far. — Walder
Accidents: Panthers | Buccaneers
What to understand for myth: This season, the Buccaneers have leveraged the working talent and receiving talent of Rachaad White. He’s averaged 18.1 touches and 15.0 myth issues in line with match. White will face a Panthers protection that permits the third-most myth issues in line with match to working backs. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: Within the final 15 seasons, groups are 19-12 ATS of their first video games beneath untouched head coaches later midseason training adjustments, together with 7-2 ATS since 2020. Read more.
Moody’s select: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20
Walder’s select: Buccaneers 19, Panthers 16
FPI prediction: TB, 71.3% (via a median of seven.5 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Next steps for Panthers, Young with Reich firing … Buccaneers QB Mayfield expected to play despite ankle … Young not blaming Reich for struggles … Bucs’ Barrett to honor late daughter with ‘My Cleats’ initiative
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: LAR -3.5 (40.5)
Storyline to look at: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is coming off a match the place he threw a season-high 4 passing touchdowns, which used to be as many as he had in his earlier 4 video games blended. The Browns have allowed simply 10 passing touchdowns this season, which is secured with the Ravens for the fewest within the NFL, so Stafford and the Rams face a vital problem. — Sarah Barshop
Daring prediction: Former Tremendous Bowl MVP Joe Flacco has now not thrown a TD go since dealing with the Browns in Pace 2 final season pace with the Jets. However the 38-year-old, who signed with the Browns on Nov. 19, will toss a couple of TDs at SoFi Stadium in his first get started with the Browns. — Jake Trotter
Stat to understand: Puka Nacua may transform the 6th participant for the reason that 1970 merger to succeed in 1,000 receiving yards in his first 12 video games (the final one to do it used to be Justin Jefferson in 2020). The receiver already holds Rams rookie data for receptions (handed 2017 Cooper Kupp) and receiving yards (924, secured with 1996 Eddie Kennison).
Matchup X issue: Rams left take on Alaric Jackson. The Broncos bogged down (an injured) Myles Garrett in Pace 12 and received. Can Jackson do the similar? It’s a lofty activity for the Rams take on, who ranks 62nd out of 70 tackles in go prevent win price. — Walder
What to understand for myth: In opposition to the Cardinals final time, working again Kyren Williams turned into the primary Rams participant since Todd Gurley in 2018 to acquire 200 general yards and rating two touchdowns in a match. Williams can also be trusted in myth lineups even in opposition to a Browns’ defensive entrance that ranks first in run block win price. He has averaged 19.0 touches in line with match this season. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Browns have lined six directly video games later a loss and are 8-0-1 ATS of their while 9 video games later a loss (3-0 ATS this season). Read more.
Moody’s select: Rams 27, Browns 16
Walder’s select: Rams 23, Browns 21
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.9% (via a median of four.8 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Garrett avoided serious shoulder injury … Sorting through the Rams’ chances in the NFC wild card picture … Flacco now Browns’ QB2, could start vs. Rams
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -3 (47.5)
Storyline to look at: Following their 31-7 NFC Championship Recreation loss to the Eagles final January, a sentiment out of the 49ers warehouse room used to be that the end result of the sport would had been a lot other if quarterback Brock Purdy didn’t move with an shock halfway during the first quarter. They’ll have a prospect to again that up on Sunday. Purdy has finished over 70% of his passes this season and has a league-leading QBR of 75.6. The Eagles are twenty ninth as opposed to the go (255.7 YPG) and feature yielded the second-most passing touchdowns within the NFL (23). — Tim McManus
Daring prediction: Working again Christian McCaffrey and the Niners will scurry for 150-plus yards. The Eagles are permitting simply 85.3 yards in line with match at the farmland, which is third-best within the league. However they have got struggled of overdue, yield a blended 346 yards at the farmland within the while two weeks. What’s extra, Philadelphia is coming off a match through which it performed 92 defensive snaps and is given up 6 yards in line with elevate on run performs out of doors the tackles. The 49ers are coming in with a couple of difference days of residue later taking part in on Thanksgiving and an offense that’s as wholesome as it’s been since early within the season. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to understand: The 49ers moderate 15.7 issues in line with match within the first part, the fourth-highest mark within the NFL. The Eagles moderate 14.8 issues in the second one part, absolute best within the NFL. (The 49ers permit 6.6 PPG in the second one part, fewest within the NFL).
Matchup X issue: 49ers broad receiver Brandon Aiyuk. It’s gliding a modest beneath the radar on account of Tyreek Hill‘s season, however Aiyuk’s 3.44 yards in line with path run in 2023 would rank 0.33 via any participant in a season since 2007, most effective in the back of Hill this season and Steve Smith in 2008. That’s how excellent he’s been, and he’s one of the playmakers who may carry the 49ers over the Eagles. — Walder
What to understand for myth: Purdy has scored 18 or extra myth issues in 3 of his final 5 video games and has finished a minimum of 70% of his passes in 5 directly. Now he faces an Eagles protection that provides up the second-most myth issues in line with match to quarterbacks. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Eagles have lined 3 directly video games and 4 in their final 5 video games. Read more.
Moody’s select: Eagles 31, 49ers 24
Walder’s select: 49ers 34, Eagles 27
FPI prediction: SF, 55.6% (via a median of one.9 issues)
Matchup must-reads: The 49ers’ pass rush is getting revved up at the right time … Eagles’ offense still drawing criticism at 10-1 … Purdy/Aiyuk combo has 49ers’ offense rolling
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: KC -6 (42.5)
Storyline to look at: The Packers are undefeated (15-0) in December since Matt LaFleur took over as tutor in 2019, however they haven’t performed the Chiefs within the ultimate day of the calendar 12 months all the way through that extend. Jordan Love‘s first NFL get started got here at Kansas Town in a 13-7 loss in November 2021. In the meantime, this might be Patrick Mahomes’ first-ever look at Lambeau Farmland. — Rob Demovsky
Daring prediction: The Chiefs will sack Love 4 occasions. When defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo needs to deliver power, the Chiefs have typically been a hit this season, and so they deliver it from many various parks. They’ve 14 gamers with a minimum of a part sack. Love has been sacked most effective 22 occasions however hasn’t confronted a go scurry like this one. — Adam Teicher
Stat to understand: The Chiefs protection makes use of DB blitzes on 20% of fighters dropbacks, the third-highest price within the league. That will not be the most efficient concept in opposition to Love on Sunday, because the Packers QB has performed neatly in opposition to DB blitzes this season, rating top-five in QBR, first unwell price and sack proportion.
Matchup X issue: The Packers’ working match. The Chiefs protection is susceptible in opposition to the run. Inexperienced Bay hasn’t truly been in a position to get its working match going this 12 months — it ranks twenty third in EPA in line with designed elevate — however wishes its backs to step up in a large method Sunday. — Walder
What to understand for myth: Endmost time in opposition to the Raiders, Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice eager season highs in goals (10), receptions (8), receiving yards (107) and myth issues (24.7). He had essentially the most receiving yards via a Chiefs rookie since Dwayne Bowe, who had 164 receiving yards in 2007. Over the while two weeks, the Packers protection gave up large video games to Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.5) and Keenan Allen (27.6). See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: Andy Reid is 0-6 ATS in his final six video games in opposition to the Packers (together with playoffs), and he’s 0-3 ATS in opposition to them because the Chiefs tutor. Read more.
Moody’s select: Chiefs 27, Packers 24
Walder’s select: Chiefs 27, Packers 20
FPI prediction: KC, 71.6% (via a median of seven.6 issues)
Matchup must-reads: The race for the AFC playoff picture: The Chiefs’ path back to the No. 1 seed … Why Love’s production has taken flight for Packers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: JAX -8.5 (38.5)
Storyline to look at: What must had been a marquee QB matchup between Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence is now Lawrence vs. Jake Browning. The Jaguars’ go scurry is coming off one in all its perfect video games of the season (21 pressures, 4 sacks), and Browning has been sacked seven occasions within the final two video games. Be expecting the Jaguars to deliver difference rushers to struggle and rattle a QB making simply his moment profession get started. — Mike DiRocco
Daring prediction: Jaguars receiver Christian Kirk and working again Travis Etienne Jr. will every move the 100-yard mark. The Bengals are worst within the NFL in yards allowed in line with play games (6.2) and feature a tender secondary nonetheless taking a look to be told the ropes. Kirk is 18th within the NFL in receiving yards, and Etienne is 0.33 within the league in scrimmage yards in line with match. — Ben Child
Stat to understand: Cincinnati receiver Ja’Marr Chase wishes 86 receiving yards for 1,000 this season. He will be the 8th participant in NFL historical past and moment Bengals participant (A.J. Green) with 1,000 receiving yards in every of his first 3 seasons.
Matchup X issue: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. If the Bengals are committing to win they’re going to wish their protection to come back up large. Hendrickson can do this in opposition to supplementary Jaguars take on Walker Little. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The go back of Jaguars receiver Zay Jones has boosted Calvin Ridley‘s myth worth since opposing defenses can not bracket him. Over the final two video games, Ridley has been centered 15 occasions and scored 22 or extra myth issues in every match. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Making a bet nugget: The Jaguars have lined 5 directly convention video games. The Bengals are 1-6 ATS this season in convention video games. Read more.
Moody’s select: Jaguars 29, Bengals 17
Walder’s select: Jaguars 23, Bengals 16
FPI prediction: JAX, 66.8% (via a median of five.8 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Bengals’ Taylor defends Mixon’s effort after Steelers loss … Can the Jaguars win the AFC’s No. 1 seed? … Burrow’s wrist surgery goes ‘as planned’ … Jaguars place starting LT Robinson (knee) on IR
