The Week 4 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with stunning matchups, and we’ve were given you coated with what you want to understand heading into the weekend. Our NFL Population newshounds deliver us the most important keys to each and every competition and a daring prediction for every matchup.
Moreover, ESPN Stats & Data supplies a obese stat to understand and a betting nugget for every game, and our Football Power Index (FPI) is going within the numbers with a competition projection. Analytics editor Seth Walder alternatives out every matchup’s largest X issue, and myth analyst Eric Moody fingers out useful fantasy football intel. In the end, Walder and Moody give us ultimate ranking picks for each and every competition. The entirety you wish to have to understand is right here in a single spot to backup you get in a position for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the overall slate, together with the primary London competition of the season (on ESPN+), a obese AFC East Dolphins-Expenses showdown, Patrick Mahomes in opposition to the Jets’ protection and Ezekiel Elliott‘s go back to Dallas. All of it culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Seahawks and the Giants on ESPN. (Recreation occasions are Sunday until differently famous.)
Leap to a matchup:
ATL-JAX | MIA-BUF | DEN-CHI
BAL-CLE | CIN-TEN | LAR-IND
TB-NO | WSH-PHI | MIN-CAR
PIT-HOU | LV-LAC | NE-DAL
ARI-SF | KC-NYJ | SEA-NYG
Thursday: DET 34, GB 20
9:30 a.m. ET | ESPN+ | Spread: JAX -3 (43.5)
Storyline to look at: Each offenses have struggled to begin the season. The Jaguars have scored simply two touchdowns of their life 8 quarters and rank twenty ninth in third-down conversion fee (29.7%). The Falcons have scored simplest two first-half touchdowns in 3 video games and controlled simply six issues ultimate era. The sort of groups coming into the tip zone early may just decide the end result. — Mike DiRocco
Daring prediction: The ultimate future Kyle Pitts performed in London — in 2021 in opposition to the Jets — the tight finish scored his first profession landing (and simplest TD that season). Again within the U.Okay., Pitts will to find the tip zone two times. Jacksonville has give up two ratings to tight ends over the life two weeks, so the chance may well be there for Pitts to attain for the primary future since Oct. 30, 2022. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to understand: Since Year 9 of ultimate season, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has led the league in QBR throwing outdoor the numbers, recording an important 15 landing passes to only one interception. In that span, Atlanta’s protection ranks twenty sixth in opponent QBR outdoor the numbers occasion permitting 11 passing touchdowns with out a interceptions.
Matchup X issue: Falcons working backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. As excellent as Robinson has been this yr, the Falcons’ working assault hasn’t been overwhelmingly environment friendly, rating simply eleventh in anticipated issues added (EPA) consistent with designed raise (.01). To triumph over the group’s pass-game deficiencies, Robinson and Allgeier should be particular. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Falcons’ protection has been pleasant to tight ends, give up the fourth-most myth issues to that place this season. That performs into the fingers of the Jaguars’ Evan Engram, who ranks first amongst tight leads to yards nearest catch (132), moment in receptions (18) and 1/3 in receiving yards (173) this season. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Falcons have coated six directly conferences and are 7-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) all-time in opposition to the Jaguars. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Jaguars 34, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick out: Jaguars 24, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: JAX, 52.3% (through a median of 0.9 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons offense hasn’t ‘skimmed the surface’ through Week 3 … Lloyd (thumb) out next two games in London … What’s wrong with the Jaguars?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -2.5 (53.5)
Storyline to look at: Whether or not the Expenses can decelerate the Dolphins’ offense is the obese query going into the sport, and occasion Buffalo’s skill to get power and yields will probably be key, its offense enjoying keep-away would backup. Buffalo’s offense is 1/3 in reasonable future of ownership (35:45). And occasion successful convincingly hasn’t been a infection for both group, with the Dolphins outscoring their combatants through 59 issues and the Expenses outscoring theirs through 56, all 3 video games between Buffalo and Miami ultimate yr had been made up our minds through 3 issues or fewer. So any other akin competition may just occur. — Alaina Getzenberg
Daring prediction: The Expenses have now not allowed 500 yards of offense in a regular-season competition since Sept. 20, 2015, however that streak will finish Sunday because the Dolphins — who’re averaging 550.3 yards consistent with competition — proceed to surge. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to understand: Expenses QB Josh Allen is 9-2 in his profession in opposition to the Dolphins (together with playoffs), his maximum wins in opposition to any group. He is an ideal 6-0 at house vs. Miami.
Matchup X issue: Dolphins edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. They have got simply 1.5 sacks blended this season, however each rank within the manage 15 in go speed win fee at edge. Each offenses must be explosive, so the Dolphins’ go speed may just give Miami an edge if it could actually get to Allen. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Expenses have the third-highest go speed win fee and had 9 sacks in opposition to the Commanders in Year 3. They’ll face a problem his era, despite the fact that. The Dolphins’ offensive fold ranks twelfth in go ban win fee, and Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the quickest reasonable future to throw within the league (2.2 seconds). See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Dolphins top the NFL with a +18.0 safe margin, the second-best mark within the NFL via 3 video games within the life seven seasons (2022 Jaguars had been +19.5). They’re 3-0 ATS. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Expenses 35, Dolphins 31
Walder’s pick out: Dolphins 35, Expenses 34
FPI prediction: MIA, 51% (through a median of 0.4 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Dolphins’ Waddle clears concussion protocol, set to return … McDaniel says revenge not on Dolphins’ minds vs. Bills … Three storylines shaping huge Bills-Dolphins AFC East showdown … Bernard off to historic start in replacing Edmunds
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DEN -3.5 (46)
Storyline to look at: Best six of 251 groups have made the playoffs nearest initiation 0-3, and this matchup options two of the 4 difference winless franchises. Each groups suffered blowout losses in Year 3, too. The Broncos allowed Miami to attain 70 issues and achieve 726 yards, occasion the Bears wish to rebound from a 31-point highway loss to Kansas Town and snap the NFL’s longest energetic dropping streak at 13 video games. It’s been just about a yr because the Bears received a competition (Oct. 24, 2022, at Fresh England). — Courtney Cronin
Daring prediction: A reeling Broncos protection — ultimate in virtually each and every primary statistical division — will sack Bears QB Justin Fields a minimum of two times and snag an interception. Later surrendering 70 issues to Miami, the Broncos face the league’s Twenty seventh-ranked scoring offense, because the Bears are averaging a not-so-robust 15.7 issues. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to understand: The Bears have allowed 106 issues via 3 video games, the second-most in franchise historical past (111 in 2003). Chicago’s maximum issues allowed via 4 video games is 134 (1964).
0:32
Can Javonte Williams flip in a excellent myth competition vs. Bears?
Liz Loza deems Javonte Williams a low-end RB2 in Year 4 vs. the Bears.
Matchup X issue: Boxes. Forgive the distinguishable resolution, however he’s the unclouded X issue for the Bears. Chicago has alternative issues, refuse indecision. However a league-worst 21 QBR from Boxes has to beef up. — Walder
What to understand for myth: Russell Wilson ranks 8th in passing yards and 6th in landing passes, and he averages 18.4 myth issues. His touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first 3 video games has been 6-1, and he has thrown for 300-plus yards in consecutive video games for the primary future since Weeks 3 and four of the 2020 season. It bodes neatly for Broncos extensive receivers Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. in opposition to the Bears, as quarterbacks have scored the fifth-most issues in opposition to them. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Broncos are 1-8 ATS as favorites because the get started of ultimate season and 1-9 ATS of their life 10 video games in that position. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Broncos 28, Bears 24
Walder’s pick out: Broncos 24, Bears 16
FPI prediction: DEN, 52.8% (through a median of one level)
Matchup must-reads: 0-3 Bears suddenly a key survival test for Broncos … Bears OC lauds Fields for taking leadership role … Inside the only 600-point offense ever … Bears’ Eberflus plans to call defensive plays rest of season
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CLE -3 (40.5)
Storyline to look at: QB Deshaun Watson has now not received (or misplaced) consecutive video games since becoming a member of the Browns. He can in any case form a successful streak if he can outduel Lamar Jackson, who’s 2-0 in opposition to Watson in head-to-head matchups relationship to Watson’s future with the Texans. Date Watson hasn’t defeated Jackson, he did information the Browns life a Tyler Huntley-led Ravens group in December. — Jake Trotter
Daring prediction: Jackson will probably be held with no landing. He has totaled extra touchdowns in opposition to the Browns than any alternative group in his six-year profession, throwing for 11 and working for 4. However the Browns’ protection has give up just one landing this season and hasn’t allowed one in Cleveland. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to understand: The Browns have now not allowed a TD in two house video games this season (outscored combatants 51-6 in Cleveland). The 2006 Broncos and 2000 Dolphins are the one groups this century not to permit a landing of their first 3 house video games.
Matchup X issue: Browns cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. His 0.4 yards consistent with protection snap is preferrred amongst all outdoor corners with a minimum of 75 protection snaps. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Browns’ protection has allowed the fewest myth issues consistent with competition to quarterbacks and a of entirety fee of not up to 50%. Cleveland’s protection additionally ranks first in run ban fee. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Ravens are 18-3-1 ATS as underdogs since 2018, the most productive file within the NFL (12-10 outright). Jackson is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog (9-4 outright), the most productive safe share and successful share as an underdog through any quarterback with a minimum of 10 begins in that position. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Browns 23, Ravens 21
Walder’s pick out: Browns 24, Ravens 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 53.7% (through a median of one.4 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Jackson upset about Ravens’ inability to finish … Watson steers Browns to bounce-back win … Ravens’ Clowney: No ‘bad blood’ exists with Browns … How Browns are moving forward at RB after Chubb’s injury
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: CIN -2.5 (41)
Storyline to look at: Search for the Titans to pull pictures unwell the farmland, particularly the usage of play-action. The Bengals’ younger safeties Dax Hill and Nick Scott will probably be keen to come back up and backup in opposition to the run, particularly for a protection that has taken delight in slowing unwell RB Derrick Henry. QB Ryan Tannehill‘s two longest completions this season got here by way of play-action (a 70-yard go to WR Treylon Burks and a 49-yard bomb to WR Chris Moore). Each throws traveled 20-plus yards within the wind. In the meantime, the Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 10.0 wind yards consistent with of entirety. — Turron Davenport
Daring prediction: Defensive take on Jeffery Simmons and the residue of the Titans’ defensive fold will don’t have any sacks. Cincinnati’s much-maligned go blockading has made obese enhancements over the life two weeks. That and QB Joe Burrow‘s particularly fast let fall as a result of his right calf injury will top to a dearth of manufacturing for one of the crucial NFL’s preferrred internal defensive strains. — Ben Child
Stat to understand: The Bengals have allowed simplest 5 sacks this season, their fewest via 3 video games since 2018. Cincinnati is looking for its twelfth directly competition permitting fewer than 3 sacks (can be its longest streak since 18 directly from 2005 to ’06 and second-longest in franchise historical past).
2:00
Wk. 4 Whiteboard Wednesday: Titans vs. Bengals
Joe Burrow will probably be taking a look to get the ball to Ja’marr Chase incessantly. Right here’s some way Cincinnati has gotten Chase some fast and simple catches. Titans DBs must take on to forbid YAC. Video through Turron Davenport.
Matchup X issue: Bengals extensive receiver Tee Higgins. He has been significantly absent, with simply 110 receiving yards via 3 video games, and his 46 Evident Ranking by way of our Receiver Tracking Metrics is an eyebrow-raiser. The Bengals want extra from him. — Walder
What to understand for myth: It’s tough to run at the Titans’ protection, however you’ll be able to throw on them. This yr, Tennessee’s secondary has allowed 275.3 passing yards consistent with competition, fifth-most within the league. Quarterbacks have averaged 19.7 myth issues in opposition to the Titans. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Titans are 25-15-1 ATS as underdogs beneath professor Mike Vrabel, together with 21-20 outright. They’re 10-5 outright and ATS as house underdogs beneath him. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Bengals 28, Titans 17
Walder’s pick out: Bengals 20, Titans 10
FPI prediction: CIN, 60.8% (through a median of three.8 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Burrow: Risk of going 0-3 outweighed chance of re-injuring calf … Titans players tired of empty winning talk amid losing trend … Burrow using Rodgers as ‘resource’ on calf injury … Skoronski recovering from ruptured appendix
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: EVEN (46)
Storyline to look at: A key to this competition would be the matchup of the Colts’ surging entrance seven in opposition to the Rams’ offensive fold. The Colts’ protection is moment within the NFL with 12 sacks. Los Angeles is Twenty seventh in go ban win fee, which has negatively impacted Rams QB Matthew Stafford (60.8% of entirety fee and 2-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio). — Stephen Holder
Daring prediction: Colts QB Anthony Richardson will turn into the primary quarterback since 1950 with a speeding landing in every of his first 3 NFL video games. The Rams have allowed 4 speeding touchdowns of their first 3 video games of the season, together with one to 49ers QB Brock Purdy. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to understand: The Colts have misplaced six directly house video games. A 7th defeat would cruel their longest house dropping streak since they dropped 8 directly in 1991 (the franchise file is 9).
Matchup X issue: Colts defensive take on DeForest Buckner. The internal of the Rams’ offensive fold is prone, and that are meant to revealed the door for Buckner to disrupt or sack Stafford. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Colts’ protection has give up the seventh-most myth issues consistent with competition to extensive receivers, so insert Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell into your myth lineups. Indy’s protection is permitting 250.7 passing yards consistent with competition, Tenth-most within the league. Plus, the Rams would possibly depend closely at the passing competition for the reason that Colts rank fourth in run ban win fee. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: Rams highway video games are 7-1-1 to the beneath because the get started of ultimate season. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Colts 24, Rams 17
Walder’s pick out: Rams 26, Colts 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 55.9% (through a median of two.1 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Rams hope to have Kupp back in Week 5 … Moss finally feeling ‘appreciated’ amid career highs
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NO -3 (39.5)
Storyline to look at: The Saints gets RB Alvin Kamara again from suspension this era, which couldn’t be extra well timed for a group that averages 93.3 speeding yards consistent with competition and faces a Buccaneers group at risk of the run. Whether or not they have got QB Derek Carr is a query, as Carr is recently improving from a right shoulder injury sustained in opposition to the Packers on Sunday. If Carr can’t advance, next Jameis Winston will probably be getting the beginning in opposition to his former group. — Katherine Terrell
Daring prediction: Bucs linebackers Lavonte David and Shaquil Barrett will mix for three.0 sacks, a pressured fumble and a fumble fix. David has 3.0 sacks and a pressured fumble within the life 3 conferences in opposition to the Saints, and if proper preserve Cesar Ruiz residue out with a concussion, it will manufacture some alternatives for Todd Bowles’ internal blitzes. Barrett additionally had 2.0 sacks and a pressured fumble the ultimate future he noticed the Saints in Year 2 ultimate season, and so they took place operating in opposition to Saints tackles James Hurst and Ryan Ramczyk. — Jenna Laine
Stat to understand: Baker Mayfield‘s one interception is the fewest he has thrown within the first 3 video games of a season in his profession, occasion his 3 sacks taken are secured for the fewest within the first 3 video games. Mayfield hasn’t ever long past the primary 4 video games of a season with out throwing a couple of interceptions.
Matchup X issue: Bucs edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. His 14% go speed win fee this yr is underneath reasonable, however he will get to stand Saints take on Trevor Penning on Sunday. Penning’s go ban win fee is 74.3%, which ranks 58th out of 62 tackles. That gifts a chance for Tryon-Shoyinka and may just lead to him attending to Winston or Carr. — Walder
Accidents: Buccaneers | Saints
What to understand for myth: The Buccaneers’ protection ranks ultimate within the league in run ban win fee and this unit simply gave up 130 speeding yards to Eagles working again D’Andre Swift in Year 3. That gifts a chance for Kamara, particularly since Jamaal Williams is on injured keep. In 26 profession video games the place Kamara has had 15-plus speeding makes an attempt, he has averaged 19.8 myth issues. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: Dennis Allen is 21-34-1 ATS in his profession (.382). Out of coaches with a minimum of 50 video games within the Tremendous Bowl presen, Allen has the worst safe share and is the one one underneath 40%. Bowles is 37-44-5 ATS (.457). Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Saints 27, Buccaneers 19
Walder’s pick out: Saints 27, Buccaneers 23
FPI prediction: NO, 54.9% (through a median of one.8 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs, Evans preparing to renew heated rivalry with Saints … How the Saints can get a boost with Kamara back … Eagles dominate Bucs in battle of unbeatens … Saints’ Carr on injury: If I’m out there, then ‘I’m good’
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: PHI -9 (43)
Storyline to look at: Commanders QB Sam Howell has his paintings snip out for him. He has been sacked a league-high 19 occasions and has been harassed the fifth-most of any QB within the NFL (36.6%). Now he faces a disruptive internal defensive entrance that includes Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis and rookie Jalen Carter, who ranks moment amongst defensive tackles with 15 pressures. Howell’s 5 interceptions are the second-most coming into Year 4, occasion the Eagles’ protection is secured for moment in takeaways with 8. — Tim McManus
Daring prediction: Washington will promote out to ban the Eagles’ speeding assault — D’Andre Swift specifically. He has pressed for time for a blended 305 yards the life two weeks, however the Commanders will keep him to fewer than 100 yards. Washington has been growth or bust in opposition to the Eagles’ speeding assault within the life 4 conferences. The Commanders have held them to not up to 118 speeding yards 3 times — however gave up 238 within the fourth assembly. The Commanders will importance a quantity in their five-man defensive fronts in opposition to arguably the most productive offensive fold in soccer; the important thing will probably be how Philadelphia throws the ball. — John Keim
Stat to understand: Jalen Hurts‘ 29 speeding touchdowns are essentially the most through a quarterback in his first 50 video games in NFL historical past (Sunday will probably be Hurts’ forty ninth profession competition). He’s taking a look to turn into the 7th participant in Eagles historical past to file 30 speeding touchdowns and would fasten Randall Cunningham (32) as the one QBs to succeed in that mark.
1:09
What to produce of the Eagles’ 3-0 get started
Robert Griffin III, Domonique Foxworth and Dan Graziano crack unwell the most important takeaways from the Eagles’ begin to the season.
Matchup X issue: Commanders defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Slowing unwell the Eagles’ run and forcing them to the wind — the place they’ve been a modest shaky — turns out the most important if Washington has any hopes of pulling an disappointed. — Walder
Accidents: Commanders | Eagles
What to understand for myth: Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith has performed 4 video games in opposition to the Commanders in his profession, averaging 7.7 objectives, 75.5 receiving yards and 15 myth issues consistent with competition in opposition to Washington. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Commanders are 3-6-2 ATS as a minimum of seven-point underdogs beneath professor Ron Rivera. All 3 covers had been outright wins. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Eagles 35, Commanders 24
Walder’s pick out: Eagles 27, Commanders 7
FPI prediction: PHI, 76.5% (through a median of 10 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Commanders confident Howell ‘growing pains’ will bring improvement … Swift helping carry Philly offense in multiple ways … Why Harris had to win Commanders’ bidding war
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: MIN -4 (46.5)
Storyline to look at: The Panthers and Vikings are two of 4 0-3 groups within the NFL, and neither had been anticipated to be on this place. Every has explanation why to consider they may be able to get a win. The Panthers welcome rookie QB Bryce Young (ankle) again to the initiation lineup in opposition to a Vikings protection ranked Twenty seventh within the NFL, give up 382.3 yards consistent with competition. The Vikings, with an offense ranked 1/3 general and moment in passing (339.7 yards consistent with competition), face a Panthers protection unwell two starters within the secondary (CB Jaycee Horn, S Xavier Woods) and banged up at a number of alternative positions. There are several of strengths as opposed to weaknesses on this one. — David Newton
Daring prediction: Working again Alexander Mattison could have the Vikings’ first 100-yard speeding competition of the season. The Vikings received Cam Akers from the Rams ultimate era, and Akers gets some enjoying future Sunday, however Mattison will play games with an too much aggressive edge. It is helping that the Panthers’ protection is permitting 136.7 speeding yards consistent with competition, secured for fifth-worst within the NFL. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to understand: Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with 1,075 passing yards (maximum via 3 video games in Vikings historical past). He wishes 313 yards to all set a franchise file for many passing yards throughout the first 4 video games of a season (he all set the file in 2018).
0:52
Why Kirk Cousins will have a ‘large life’ in Year 4
Farmland Yates says Kirk Cousins residue underrated in myth soccer and demand managers get started him in Year 4.
Matchup X issue: Younger. The truth is the offense was once higher with Andy Dalton in Year 3 than it was once with the rookie QB within the first two weeks. Such a lot hinges on whether or not and the way temporarily the Disagree. 1 general pick out can get better. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Vikings’ protection has allowed the 1/3 maximum myth issues consistent with competition to extensive receivers. Adam Thielen has a positive matchup in opposition to Vikings slot cornerback Josh Metellus, so the Panthers extensive receiver must do neatly in opposition to his former group. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Panthers have received 3 directly video games as house underdogs (3-1 ATS/directly up ultimate season). Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Vikings 24, Panthers 17
Walder’s pick out: Vikings 33, Panthers 24
FPI prediction: MIN, 63.9% (through a median of five issues)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ defense could be bigger worry than situational mistakes in 0-3 start … Thielen ‘feels like a kid again’ as he prepares for Vikings … O’Connell threatens to bench players over turnover issues
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -3 (42.5)
Storyline to look at: The Steelers’ protection is secured for 5th in interceptions (4), however Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has but to throw an interception in his NFL profession. A possible factor for the Texans is they have got accidents all over the place the offensive fold as LT Laremy Tunsil, RT Tytus Howard, C Juice Scruggs, LG Kenyon Green and additional LT Josh Jones are injured. Tunsil and Jones aren’t on injured keep like Howard, Inexperienced and Scruggs, however they won’t play games on Sunday. — DJ Bien-Aime
Daring prediction: Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt will secured his single-game career-high with 4 sacks. As a result of Stroud excelled at getting the ball out temporarily in opposition to the Jaguars’ blitz, the Texans didn’t give up a sack a era in the past — however gave up 11 within the earlier two weeks. Watt had a couple of sacks in two of 3 video games this season, plus used brother J.J. Watt will probably be inducted into the Texans’ Ring of Honor this weekend. Depend on a pleasant but fierce sibling contention to get a modest too much juice. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to understand: Pittsburgh professor Mike Tomlin’s 23-4 file in opposition to rookie quarterbacks is the most productive file of any professor vs. first-year QBs since a minimum of 1950 with at least 15 video games coached.
Matchup X issue: Texans extensive receiver Tank Dell. The rookie third-round pick out ranks moment in yards consistent with course run in opposition to guy protection amongst extensive receivers with a minimum of 50 routes and looks as if an rising superstar. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Texans’ protection ranks nineteenth in run ban win fee and has allowed the fourth maximum myth issues consistent with competition to working backs. Colts working again Zack Moss scored 20.7 myth issues in opposition to Houston’s protection in Year 2, and the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne Jr. scored 17.8 myth issues in Year 3. That bodes neatly for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Texans are 0-9-1 outright of their life 10 house video games (4-6 ATS). They’re 2-6 ATS of their life 8 house video games. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Steelers 27, Texans 17
Walder’s pick out: Texans 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: PIT, 58.7% (through a median of three.1 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Can the Steelers’ offensive improvement vs. Raiders be trusted? … Texans rookies Stroud, Anderson, Dell asserting themselves among the NFL’s elite … Stroud makes history
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -5 (49)
Storyline to look at: Each groups’ manage receivers, Keenan Allen of the Chargers and Davante Adams of the Raiders, are new off dominant performances. Allen threw a passing landing and had 18 catches for 215 yards and a receiving ranking ultimate era in opposition to the Vikings; Adams had 13 receptions for 172 yards and two touchdowns in opposition to Pittsburgh. Now, they each face suffering go defenses. The Chargers’ secondary has allowed essentially the most passing yards this season (1,079), and each groups are secured for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed (seven). — Kris Rhim
Daring prediction: Regardless of who’s enjoying quarterback for the Raiders — Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell — he’ll be sacked a minimum of two times every through Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The Raiders’ O-line allowed Garoppolo — who’s in concussion protocol — to get sacked 4 occasions ultimate era. Mack, the 2016 NFL Defensive Participant of the Hour for the Raiders, is in search of his first sack of the season, occasion Bosa already has 3. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to understand: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has 213 consecutive passes with out throwing an interception, the longest streak in group historical past.
Matchup X issue: Chargers cornerback Michael Davis. He’s permitting 2.3 yards consistent with protection snap, consistent with NFL Nearest Gen Stats — virtually double the league reasonable for an outdoor nook. That’s a part of the rationale the Chargers’ go protection has been so destitute. — Walder
What to understand for myth: With simply two speeding makes an attempt of greater than 10 yards and 6 passes of greater than 20 yards, the Raiders have generated the fewest explosive performs within the league. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Raiders have coated 5 in their life six section video games. The life 4 section video games have long past beneath the whole. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Chargers 27, Raiders 21
Walder’s pick out: Chargers 34, Raiders 30
FPI prediction: LAC, 74.6% (through a median of 9.2 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Rookie or vet if Garoppolo can’t start? The pros, cons and QB questions for the Raiders … Williams’ injury sets the stage for rookie Johnston … Ekeler, back at practice, says Week 4 ‘a possibility’
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DAL -6.5 (43)
Storyline to look at: Perhaps you’ve heard that is Ezekiel Elliott‘s first future again at AT&T Stadium since he was once snip through the Cowboys. Date Elliott’s homecoming has been a central theme this era, the Cowboys wish to to find the mode they’d within the first two weeks defensively nearest a no-show in opposition to the Cardinals. Preventing Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson will probably be on the manage of the listing, however offensively, they’re going to must be able to attain touchdowns within the pink zone vs. a stingy Patriots protection. The Cowboys have transformed six touchdowns in 15 red-zone journeys. Fresh England didn’t permit a red-zone shuttle to the Jets ultimate era. — Todd Archer
Daring prediction: Elliott will ranking his first speeding landing as a Patriot in opposition to his former group. Elliott is coming off his preferrred competition in Fresh England (80 yards on 16 carries), and the Cowboys have proven a vulnerability in opposition to the run, rating thirtieth in yards consistent with raise allowed (5.3) and twenty fifth in speeding yards allowed consistent with competition (131.3). — Mike Reiss
Stat to understand: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is averaging a career-low 6.3 yards consistent with effort and 5.3 wind yards consistent with effort. The wind yards is second-shortest within the league, in the back of simplest Colts rookie Anthony Richardson.
2:19
Is Dak in charge for Cowboys’ pink zone struggles?
Dan Orlovsky doesn’t perceive why CeeDee Lamb’s pink zone objectives are so low for the Cowboys.
Matchup X issue: The Patriots offensive fold. It already ranks ultimate in go ban win fee and now’s dealing with Micah Parsons and the Dallas go speed. Excellent good fortune. — Walder
What to understand for myth: The Patriots’ offensive fold helped Fresh England amass 157 speeding yards in Year 3. This Patriots grouping must stay in combination for a moment consecutive era, which is great since this workforce didn’t get many reps in combination all through the summer season. Which may be obese for the Pats’ working backs in opposition to a spotty Dallas speed protection. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is 0-10 ATS in his life 10 begins as an underdog. He’s 3-11 ATS as an underdog in his profession (2-12 outright). And the Patriots are 0-7 ATS of their life seven video games as an underdog. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Cowboys 23, Patriots 20
Walder’s pick out: Cowboys 28, Patriots 20
FPI prediction: DAL, 68.6% (through a median of 6.7 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Will Jones get Patriots’ deep-passing game going against Cowboys? … Cowboys’ red zone struggles continue in loss to Cardinals … Elliott looking forward to facing Cowboys
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -14 (44)
Storyline to look at: The Cardinals’ win in opposition to the Cowboys in Year 3 must grant as a threat to the Niners that Arizona isn’t to be taken calmly, particularly with San Francisco scheduled for a Sunday night time showdown in opposition to Dallas in Year 5. The Niners delight themselves on being essentially the most bodily group in each and every competition, however a run protection that hasn’t been examined a lot this yr (combatants have tried simply 43 rushes, the fewest within the NFL via 3 weeks) will probably be challenged. Arizona enters this matchup ranked 6th in speeding yards and moment in yards consistent with speed. — Nick Wagoner
Daring prediction: Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs will in any case crack out and feature his first 300-yard passing competition occasion including 75 yards at the grassland. Dobbs has been cast to this point, as his 61.2 QBR ranks Tenth within the NFL, however he’ll step it up much more and put Arizona in place to tug an disappointed. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to understand: Niners working again Christian McCaffrey has 12 directly video games, together with playoffs, with a landing, homogeneous Jerry Rice (1987) for the longest streak in franchise historical past.
Matchup X issue: Cardinals extensive receiver Michael Wilson. He’s averaging a gaudy 17.1 wind yards consistent with goal. If the Cardinals are moving to come what may snatch off this disappointed, they’re most probably going to want some deep pictures to the rookie. — Walder
What to understand for myth: Best the Ravens, Browns, 49ers, Eagles and Dolphins have averaged extra speeding yards consistent with competition than the Cardinals (156.3). Virtually 1/2 the Cardinals’ speeding makes an attempt have won 5 or extra yards, second-highest within the league. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS this season, all as an underdog. They’re the primary group to begin 3-0 ATS and be double-digit underdogs of their fourth competition because the 1977 Buccaneers and the primary to be a minimum of 14-point underdogs of their fourth competition because the 1969 Falcons. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: 49ers 35, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick out: 49ers 26, Cardinals 16
FPI prediction: SF, 87.3% (through a median of 15.8 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Obstacles in Gannon’s career path led him to Cardinals … 49ers fully appreciate significance of second 3-0 start since 1999 … Is McCaffrey the prototype for the next star running back?
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: KC -8.5 (41.5)
Storyline to look at: It is advisable to argue this matchup options the most productive quarterback within the NFL in opposition to the worst. Since coming into the league in 2021, Zach Wilson has a league-low 34.4 QBR, which is ultimate amongst certified passers. In the similar span, Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with a 73.4 QBR. This season has obvious a lot of the similar, as Mahomes’ 69.2 QBR is 5th within the league, occasion Wilson’s mark of 26.7 is thirty third out of 34 certified quarterbacks. — Affluent prosperous Cimini
Daring prediction: The Chiefs will notch their first shutout since they blanked the Texans in a 2015 wild-card playoff win. The Chiefs are enjoying as neatly, if now not higher, on protection than they have got since Andy Reid changed into their professor in 2013, occasion the Jets are suffering to produce their means with Wilson at quarterback. The Chiefs took a shutout into the fourth quarter ultimate era in opposition to the Bears. This future, they end the task. — Adam Teicher
Stat to understand: With one passing landing on Sunday Night time Soccer, Mahomes will surpass Corridor of Famer Dan Marino for the fewest profession video games to 200 passing touchdowns in NFL historical past.
Matchup X issue: Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. The Jets are going to want an otherwordly defensive efficiency — most probably with a defensive ranking — to tug off this disappointed. No person’s extra remarkable in making that occur than Gardner. — Walder
What to understand for myth: Via 3 video games, the Jets rank thirty second in issues, general yards, and primary downs. Fresh York has averaged simplest 2.8 yards consistent with play games in Wilson’s two begins. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Jets are 3-1 ATS and 2-2 outright as house underdogs of greater than a landing. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Chiefs 28, Jets 10
Walder’s pick out: Chiefs 24, Jets 13
FPI prediction: KC, 74.1% (through a median of 9 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Mahomes reaches 25,000 career passing yards in win … Saleh, players OK with Rodgers calling out Jets … A hype timeline of Kelce and Swift’s rumored romance … Namath blasts Wilson as Jets reaffirm faith in QB
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: SEA -1 (47)
Storyline to look at: This will probably be QB Geno Smith‘s first get started at MetLife Stadium since Year 7 of the 2016 season when he was once with the Jets. Since next, Smith began for the Giants (in playground of Eli Manning) in a highway competition in 2017 and performed for the Chargers and Seahawks. Because the starter for the Seahawks, Smith beat the Giants and Jets ultimate yr in Seattle and developed right into a Professional Bowl quarterback. Now, he returns to the playground the place his profession started as a second-round pick out for the Jets in 2013. — Jordan Raanan
Daring prediction: Jamal Adams could have a minimum of 1.5 sacks in his go back from trauma. The superstar protection is in any case again from the torn quad tendon he suffered in ultimate season’s opener, so Monday night time’s competition will mark an unveiling of Seattle’s plan to get him again to his 2020 mode, when he all set the file for sacks in a season through a defensive again with 9.5. He faces Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who has already been sacked 12 occasions over 3 video games, secured for fourth-most within the league. — Brady Henderson
Stat to understand: Jones has a 1-11 profession file in prime-time video games as a starter, with the lone win coming in Year 15 ultimate season in opposition to the Commanders. Jones’ prime-time file is the worst through any initiation QB because the 1970 merger (minimal 10 begins).
Matchup X issue: Giants tight finish Darren Waller. He’s averaging 1.7 yards consistent with course run, which sounds OK for a good finish, however the Giants want him to be greater than that. His 25% goal fee ranks Twenty seventh amongst avid gamers with a minimum of 50 routes run, however he ranks fiftieth in yards consistent with course run amongst that very same workforce. — Walder
What to understand for myth: Many myth managers be expecting Jones and the Giants’ go catchers to have a fruitful Monday night time, with the Seahawks permitting the second-most passing yards this season. However the Seahawks are fourth in go speed win fee, which generally is a issue in opposition to Jones, who has struggled in opposition to power within the life. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody
Having a bet nugget: The Giants have misplaced seven directly Monday Night time Soccer video games, going 3-4 ATS in that span. Read more.
Moody’s pick out: Seahawks 27, Giants 24
Walder’s pick out: Seahawks 31, Giants 21
FPI prediction: SEA, 57% (through a median of two.5 issues)
Matchup must-reads: Why Seattle’s run defense has surprised so far this season … How do the Giants fix their defense? … Seahawks safety Adams to return vs. Giants on MNF … Giants say Barkley day-to-day with ankle injury
